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08:03
Sep 03
Sep 03
FXY 1ST
TLT
▾
HIGH
Yen gains on BOJ, GPIF repatriation
The yen is getting a tailwind from background factors: a hawkish BOJ member left open the possibility of a bigger-than-25-basis-point or back-to-back hike, short-term rate markets are pricing beyond 25bp, and there is speculation GPIF may repatriate capital from US bonds back into Japanese bonds, giving yen bulls more confidence.
FXY LONG
Yields rise further; bond prices fall
Global bond yields are likely to rise further because we are in a higher interest-rate environment, more developed-market central banks are likely to keep raising rates, and bond prices are grinding lower even though coupon income cushions holders. The move is gradual but points to continued downside for bond prices.
TLT SHORT
HIGH
08:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
US 10Y Treasury
NAND flash memory
005930.KS
YMTC
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
US 10-year yields likely capped near election
US 10-year Treasury yields are unlikely to run to 5.0% because the Trump administration will not tolerate runaway rates before the midterm elections; if yields calm or turn down, the market can refocus on earnings and shareholder returns and may stage a year-end rally.
US 10Y Treasury LONG
YMTC bigger medium-term threat than CXMT
In Chinese memory competition, CXMT is less worrying because the DRAM tech gap is about three years and EUV restrictions may widen Korea's HBM lead; YMTC is the more serious medium-term threat in NAND with 14% global share, X-stacking capability and an accelerated IPO, but the short-term threat is limited, so NAND/YMTC should be watched rather than feared now.
NAND flash memory WATCH
YMTC WATCH
Accumulate Samsung, SK hynix as shareholder-return stocks
US semiconductor tariff concerns on Korean DRAM are overblown: DRAM supply is an oligopoly of Samsung, SK hynix, Micron plus CXMT, making punitive tariffs unrealistic and likely a US pressure tactic; hyperscalers would bear added costs and opposition or lobbying would be strong, so the tariff risk is largely already in prices.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Korean cosmetics reasonable valuation; trade export catalysts
Korean cosmetics stocks are an attractive short-term trading area because valuations are reasonable at about 15-20x forward P/E, APR has near 100% ROE, and monthly export statistics provide repeated catalysts; the suggested strategy is to buy on dips and take profits when strong export data or stock pops arrive.
APR LONG
Cosmax LONG
Korean Kolmar LONG
Korean cosmetics LONG
Sell secondary batteries into strength
Secondary battery stocks have rallied on AS-related expectations, but valuations are stretched against earnings: L&F trades near 7x PBR and Samsung SDI around 1.9x forward PBR, yet the sector still makes little profit; the speaker suggests selling into strength rather than chasing.
L&F AVOID
006400.KS AVOID
Korean secondary battery stocks AVOID
Favor construction/EPC over nuclear for US projects
Korean construction/EPC names are better-positioned beneficiaries than popular nuclear names for the upcoming US-Korea strategic investment: the project may shift to a Texas gas combined-cycle power project, with Samsung C&T and Hyundai E&C as EPC participants and Doosan Enerbility as gas turbine supplier; construction valuations are more acceptable and they also benefit from domestic data center construction and government land supply.
028260.KS LONG
000720.KS LONG
034020.KS LONG
HIGH
06:55
Sep 03
Sep 03
KBE 1ST
DXJ
AVGO 1ST
JGBUX 1ST
DXY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Asian banks benefit from rising rates.
Asian financials are rallying with Korean banks and Japanese banks gaining because both central banks are expected to continue raising rates, which would likely benefit banks and fixed income investments.
KBE LONG
DXJ LONG
Broadcom benefits from AI chip diversification.
Broadcom's large customers are diversifying away from being solely reliant on Nvidia, and expanding AI chip demand is where Broadcom comes in; Broadcom is riding the same AI wave rather than posing a major threat to Nvidia.
AVGO LONG
JGBs may get reallocation inflows.
A likely early GPIF-style reallocation could send more money into JGBs, while Japanese investors continue to be net sellers of global bonds, making markets jittery about running the yen down further.
JGBUX LONG
Dollar likely weakens modestly.
Despite high US dollar interest rates, forward premium math means investors may be thinking the US dollar is probably going to weaken a bit, though not too much.
DXY SHORT
Bond selloff creates high-quality income.
The bond selloff has created fixed income opportunities: investors can get almost 5% yield over 10 years and around 6% yields in high-quality US dollar credit with little default risk, and she does not expect US inflation to run amok again.
TLT LONG
LQD LONG
IG credit has mispriced opportunities.
Rating agencies are not pricing risk properly in parts of the investment-grade market, creating mispriced opportunities even though overall spreads are not hugely concerning.
Investment-grade bonds LONG
Yen intervention risk near 160.
The yen is at risk of intervention around the 160 psychological level, and a more aggressive Bank of Japan would support the currency, so the BOJ meeting is a key focus.
FXY WATCH
AI value rotates to Dell.
AI infrastructure spending is maturing and value is rotating up the stack from chips to companies that translate chip demand into deployable solutions, with Dell surging 16% after raising its revenue outlook.
DELL LONG
Chevron grows Venezuela production significantly.
Chevron is investing $7 billion in three Venezuelan joint ventures and plans to grow production from about 250,000 barrels today to over 600,000 by 2031, with heavy oil reserves supporting decades of output.
CVX LONG
HIGH
06:50
Sep 03
Sep 03
FXY
TSM
MU
EEM
FXI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Yen intervention risk near 160.
The yen strengthened sharply after hawkish Bank of Japan comments and a possible intervention or rate check, with caution building around the 160 level against the dollar ahead of the BOJ decision and Japan's long holiday. The setup points to continued intervention risk and yen strength.
FXY WATCH
TSMC and Micron likely tariff-exempt winners.
The Trump administration's fresh semiconductor tariff plan is aimed at data servers and designed to incentivize US manufacturing. Companies with significant US commitments, such as TSMC and Micron, are likely to receive exemptions or be spared, while companies without that US footprint would face duties.
TSM WATCH
MU WATCH
Overweight emerging market equities.
Emirates NBD is overweight emerging market equities for secular, valuation and ownership reasons. The old world/new world shift is creating opportunities, and emerging markets are no longer as emerging as they used to be.
EEM LONG
China AI valuation and growth favorite.
China is the favorite emerging market because it is building its own AI stack at a very affordable price. Asian AI names offer similar technology to the US at better valuations and are only three to six months behind, creating a mix of valuation and growth.
FXI LONG
US yields near top; add duration.
The firm believes US yields are close to a top. It was short duration for a long time and that worked, but it is now considering adding duration. Inflation expectations are stable around 2.4%, and high yields are driven more by growth and debt than by inflation.
TLT LONG
Equities can withstand five percent yields.
High Treasury yields mainly reflect growth and heavy capital investment rather than inflation. Earnings have been spectacular, and equities can live with yields around five percent unless there is an absolute crash in bonds; there is no solvency issue.
SPY LONG
Rate hikes lift Japanese bank stocks.
Asian financial stocks are hitting record highs, led by Japan's Topix bank index, as investors expect the central banks in Japan and South Korea to continue raising rates. That rate-hike path supports bank earnings and financial sector momentum.
TOPIX-BANKS LONG
MSCI Financials Index LONG
Venezuela deals boost Chevron production.
Chevron's new Venezuela agreements allow about $7 billion of investment across three joint ventures over five years, more than tripling production to over 600,000 barrels per day by 2031. The added acreage holds many billions of barrels of reserves that will last decades, with overall capex guidance unchanged.
CVX LONG
Saudi export disruption keeps oil supply risky.
Saudi crude exports fell to the lowest level in nine years as Red Sea attacks make buyers reluctant to send tankers through Bab el-Mandeb, and the longer route around Africa adds cost and time. With Hormuz still restricted and Saudi tankers being struck, oil supply routes remain disrupted and risky.
BNO WATCH
HIGH
06:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
011170.KS
285130.KS 1ST
007690.KS 1ST
298020.KS
034020.KS
▾
HIGH
Beaten-down Korean chemical stocks are rebounding.
Lee sees money rotating into deeply beaten-down sectors, and Korean petrochemical/chemical names such as Lotte Chemical, SK Chemicals, Kukdo Chemical, and Hyosung TNC are rebounding from the bottom with improving chart patterns, making the chemical sector a supply/demand-driven recovery play.
011170.KS LONG
285130.KS LONG
007690.KS LONG
298020.KS LONG
US nuclear builds favor Korean nuclear leaders.
Lee highlights Macquarie's Korea nuclear project report prioritizing Doosan Enerbility and Hyundai Construction as U.S. nuclear projects move into full-scale progression, with the expectation-building phase now starting for Korean nuclear-exposed names.
034020.KS LONG
000720.KS LONG
Nervous market rotates into bank stocks.
With the market nervous, Lee observes funds flowing into large Korean bank holding companies such as KB Financial, Hana Financial Group, and Shinhan Financial Group as a defensive destination, supporting their outperformance.
105560.KS LONG
086790.KS LONG
055550.KS LONG
LNG project news can lift pipe/valve/steel.
Lee believes Alaska/U.S. natural gas terminal projects will proceed and Korea and Japan are likely to participate, so Korean pipe fitting/valve and steel names such as Seonggwang Bend, Taekwang Industrial, Haseong Valve, POSCO International, Nexteel, and Husteel have low price burdens and can rally on news, though he wants more confirmation before turning aggressive.
Seonggwang Bend WATCH
Taekwang Industrial WATCH
Haseong Valve WATCH
047050.KS WATCH
092790.KS WATCH
005010.KS WATCH
Battery names bounce; Samsung SDI leads.
Lee says the secondary battery sector is worth a short-term challenge after yesterday's pullback: Samsung SDI is the leading stock, while LG Energy Solution, POSCO Future M, and L&F are recovering. However, if Samsung SDI reaches the mid-600,000 won area, the rest of the group should become profit-taking territory.
006400.KS LONG
003670.KS LONG
066970.KS LONG
Alteogen short covering could spark rally.
Lee argues Alteogen's drop is supply/demand-driven and overdone; despite a record 4.4 trillion won license-out and a Halozyme litigation win, heavy short selling and weak institutional buying are suppressing it. If the stock is forced higher, aggressive short covering could drive a sharp rally similar to past secondary battery squeezes.
196170.KQ LONG
Global autos weak; Hyundai not cheap.
Lee says global autos are in a low-growth downturn: Volkswagen and Stellantis were removed from Eurostoxx50, Toyota has struggled, and Hyundai's delivery time collapse indicates high inventory. Hyundai at 9-10x valuation is not cheap, Kia at around 6x is not attracting buyers, and without robot momentum Hyundai/Kia are likely to stay under pressure.
000270.KS AVOID
005380.KS AVOID
HIGH
05:14
Sep 03
Sep 03
HOOD
COIN
▾
HIGH
New token issuance benefits U.S. crypto infrastructure
The SEC's Regulation Crypto creates clear registration exemption tracks for non-security token sales, which should revive new token issuance and route more listing, trading, and custody flow through U.S. crypto infrastructure. Kim names exchanges and custodians as direct beneficiaries, specifically public platforms Coinbase and Robinhood, with custody names such as Anchorage Digital and BitGo also benefiting.
HOOD LONG
COIN LONG
HIGH
05:09
Sep 03
Sep 03
FXY FLIP
JGBUX
AVGO 1ST
EWY
SNOW 1ST
▾
HIGH
BOJ hawkish shift supports Japanese yen.
The yen spike was most likely driven by a BOJ board member opening the door to a bigger-than-usual 50bp rate move and back-to-back hikes, which most traders had not expected; with the BOJ meeting weeks away, the yen is becoming more interesting and near-term supported.
FXY LONG
BOJ and fiscal discipline support JGBs.
He says the BOJ needs to raise rates and Japan must convince investors it is serious about reining in fiscal deficits; that would engender more confidence in JGBs, with long-end yields already responding and things moving in favor of Japanese assets, though it is early.
JGBUX WATCH
Broadcom AI revenue and customers support stock.
Broadcom's key positive is its very high fiscal 2028 AI revenue guidance of about $230 billion and the first-time disclosure of top four AI customers Google, OpenAI, Meta and Anthropic; as the number one custom ASIC player, it is seeing more diversification and growth from new frontier-lab programs, easing competitive concerns.
AVGO LONG
AI fundamentals rock-solid; Taiwan Korea benefit.
Solid U.S. AI results from Broadcom, Snowflake and HP show AI trade fundamentals are rock-solid; guidance is expanding beyond GPUs and CPUs across the AI ecosystem, helping Taiwan and Korea semiconductor names pick back up.
EWY LONG
Snowflake emerging AI compute winner.
Snowflake is becoming a new driver of the AI trade by creating a new market for computer processing power outside the traditional players and making significant headway in AI compute.
SNOW LONG
Asian banks lead second-half alpha.
Asian banks have held in during big down days and are becoming a bigger driver of equity returns in the second half, with alpha beating beta; Chinese banks are really strong and Japanese banks are beating tech by a wide margin.
DXJ LONG
Chevron triples Venezuela oil production.
Chevron reached agreements to invest $7 billion through three joint ventures in Venezuela over five years, tripling production from the pre-Trump level to about 600,000 barrels per day by 2031; this is a win for U.S. refiners and adds decades-long reserve development.
CVX LONG
Merck Electronics benefits from AI chip demand.
Merck Electronics sees AI as the biggest demand driver by far, with strong data center buildout and hyperscaler capex; its semiconductor solutions unit grew 12% in Q2, and the company is investing in the U.S., Taiwan and Japan to follow customers.
MRK.DE LONG
China robotics and AI hot theme.
China has made a very strong statement in AI, will likely get into HBM, and is well placed in humanoid robotics; the Unitree IPO and related China/Hong Kong futuristic names are a hot investment theme with future earnings difficult to price and volatility likely.
China robotics/humanoid robots LONG
Emerging market bonds resilient to selloff.
Emerging market funds have bucked the global bond selloff because high-yield EM currency carry funded by dollars has produced steady positive returns, EM governments have contained fiscal deficits, and supply is less crowded than developed sovereigns.
Emerging market bonds LONG
EMLC LONG
AI fundamentals rock-solid; Taiwan Korea benefit.
Taiwan is gaining as an integrated semiconductor nation because TSMC's supply chain is heavily domestic, capacity is running out, chipmaking tool estimates are rising 1.9x, and local retail investors have kept risk balanced despite foreign outflows.
EWT LONG
TSM LONG
Asian banks lead second-half alpha.
Chinese banks have materially outperformed as Chinese fiscal restraint repaired the balance-sheet perception, and global investors who avoided the sector are now looking behind the ball; macro stability supports the banks even as equity supply weighs on China tech.
KBA LONG
Shipping rates and volumes lift MOL.
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines revised up its forecast because the Hormuz closure forced longer shipping routes and more ships, pushing up freight rates, while trade volumes are solid and climate incidents such as typhoons and Panama Canal bottlenecks added disruption.
MSLOY LONG
HIGH
04:56
Sep 03
Sep 03
EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY
Japan 30-year government bonds
Global government bonds
Asia local bonds
▾
HIGH
Yen has room to appreciate further.
The yen surged on BOJ hawk speculation, and with the September BOJ meeting approaching and traders positioning for a possible larger hike, there is room for the yen to appreciate further, particularly against the euro and pound, while dollar-yen is more difficult but still has upside yen risk.
EUR/JPY SHORT
GBP/JPY SHORT
JPY LONG
Japan 30-year auction globally crucial.
The 30-year JGB auction is huge and globally important because Japan's higher term premium has been feeding into U.S., German and UK yields; conditions look decent so it may pass, but a failure would be bad for global rates.
Japan 30-year government bonds WATCH
Bond valuations now offer attractive compensation.
Long-end term premium stress will persist until fiscal normalization, but current valuations and carry compensation in bond and fixed-income products are sufficient to offset potential capital losses, creating an attractive macro setup for bonds generally.
Global government bonds LONG
TLT LONG
Prefer Asia and EM local bonds.
Asian local and EM local markets have less competing hyperscaler bond supply than developed markets, and domestic banks buy their own government debt, giving value creation with better alpha asymmetry.
Asia local bonds LONG
EM local bonds LONG
Short dollar, buy North Asia currencies.
Capital that went into U.S. growth stocks is coming back into the export cycle, supporting a capital repatriation normalization theme that is bullish for the yen, Korean won and Taiwan dollar; he remains short the dollar.
USD SHORT
KRW LONG
TWD LONG
Food-delivery price war easing structurally.
The China food-delivery price war is fading faster than expected, with better cost discipline and narrowing quick-commerce losses for JD and Alibaba; estimates have been revised up and shares have rebounded, with the improvement seen as structural rather than seasonal.
JD LONG
BABA LONG
Asian high yield deep value later.
Indonesia, Philippines and India high-yield assets are still struggling because of extended higher oil prices, fiscal deficits and term premium stress, but they are deep value and could be attractive once oil and term premium normalize, more of a next-year setup.
Indonesia high-yield bonds WATCH
Philippines high-yield bonds WATCH
India high-yield bonds WATCH
Enflame is a Tencent AI bet.
Enflame's Tencent relationship is the big differentiator: Tencent is both a major consumer and a major backer, so investing in Enflame is effectively a bet on Tencent's AI ambitions and how far ahead Tencent can push.
Enflame WATCH
China government bonds look unattractive.
The acceleration in China government bond issuance is largely priced in, and with China's long yields low compared to global peers, fund managers see other fixed-income markets as more attractive; the impact on China government bonds is negative.
CBON AVOID
Yuan likely appreciates gradually.
The PBOC is expected to allow gradual yuan appreciation, with state banks managing the currency around 6.72 per dollar, low volatility, and Goldman seeing the yuan strengthening toward 5 per dollar over the next several years.
USD/CNY SHORT
CNY LONG
Asian banks offer sharp risk-adjusted exposure.
Asian banking and financials have one of the sharpest risk-adjusted profiles in Asia because they track the tech boom, cash flows into regional economies and rate pressure; Korean and Japanese financials have been strong.
Korean financials LONG
DXJ LONG
Equity market tone remains strong.
The equity market tone is still strong because nominal growth is strong, corporate earnings are coming through and froth has come off in momentum; the AI story is positive but equity leadership should broaden.
VT LONG
Tactical value in long government bonds.
After being negative on bonds earlier, she now sees tactical value in government bonds, especially the long end, because more rate hikes are now priced at the front end and inflation should be well behaved.
US 30-year Treasuries LONG
IEF LONG
Little value in credit now.
She sees little value in credit right now even as she remains positive on the AI story; she prefers diversified equity exposure rather than chasing credit.
LQD AVOID
Favor quality and value equities.
After a worrying momentum-versus-quality divergence, she sees opportunity in quality and value stocks to diversify AI risk instead of chasing momentum froth.
High-quality stocks LONG
Value stocks LONG
Stay positive on Asia and China.
She remains positive on Asia because the region offers the best growth opportunity outside the U.S., and China is the economy that can compete with U.S. tech, so investors should diversify geographically away from U.S.-only exposure.
AAXJ LONG
FXI LONG
Gold is still a useful hedge.
Gold remains a better hedge than bonds against fiscal sustainability and central-bank credibility concerns; even after rate repricing and bond yields rising, there is still a role for gold.
GLD LONG
Taiwan chip supply chain is bullish.
There is broad bullishness in Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain because the AI chipmaking supercycle is so strong in the U.S. and elsewhere, and companies are adding U.S. investments while remaining critical suppliers.
Taiwan Semiconductor Supply Chain LONG
TSM LONG
Dollar-yen sustained reversal still distant.
Even if the BOJ hikes 25 basis points in September, deeply negative real rates and Japan's term premium mean conditions for a sustained dollar-yen reversal are still some way away; he expects dollar-yen to remain around 160, contained between about 155 and 164, with year-end forecast 160-161.
USD/JPY LONG
Swiss franc is preeminent safe haven.
In a larger risk-off correction through September-October, the U.S. dollar would still hold up well, but the Swiss franc is proving itself the preeminent safe-haven currency, outperforming the dollar.
CHF LONG
Emerging market local debt is winning.
Emerging markets are the surprise winner in the global bond rout: high-yielding EM sovereign yields have fallen since March and the dollar-funded carry trade has returned 22% since end-2024, with lower supply and seven quarters of capital gains.
Emerging market local bonds LONG
High-yield EM sovereign bonds LONG
HIGH
04:42
Sep 03
Sep 03
ETH
SOL
HYPE
PUMP.FUN 1ST
035420.KS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Ethereum ETF inflows; Clarity bill pivotal.
Ethereum spot ETFs have logged twelve straight trading days of net inflows and flipped cumulative flows positive. Staking-enabled ETFs such as BlackRock's ETHB are attracting interest with rising staking rewards, and other issuers are applying for staking products. The Clarity bill is the key event: if passed, Ethereum and Solana platform assets benefit from regulated on-chain finance; if the September 15 vote fails, Ethereum could fall more than Bitcoin.
ETH WATCH
SOL WATCH
Revenue-funded buybacks lift Hyperliquid and Pump.fun.
Crypto project buybacks grew about 17% year-over-year, with Hyperliquid and Pump.fun making up nearly 90% of top-two-project buyback volume. These platforms fund buybacks from protocol revenue and can encode them transparently in smart contracts, creating a revenue-to-token-price virtuous cycle. Hyperliquid rose about 200% this year despite a weak market and reached top-9 global market cap, supporting the buyback-driven token thesis.
HYPE LONG
PUMP.FUN LONG
Regulatory easing may accelerate Naver M&A.
Kim argues the resignation of the Blue House policy chief who pushed a 20% exchange major-shareholder ownership cap means the rule will likely be relaxed, at minimum by limiting voting rights above 20% rather than ownership. That is a positive regulatory shift for Upbit and Bithumb management and could accelerate M&A-related outcomes for Naver and Dunamu investors.
035420.KS LONG
Bitcoin ETF demand strongly recovered in August.
Binance is aggressively expanding traditional-finance-linked derivatives and stock-token products; its traditional-finance perpetual futures 30-day volume is already about double Bitcoin perpetual futures. Park expects further expansion, potentially accelerating around an expected Anthropic listing. This may divert demand that previously went into Bitcoin, creating a structural headwind for Bitcoin upside.
BTC LONG
HIGH
03:20
Sep 03
Sep 03
NVDA
DELL
AVGO
SNOW
EOSE
▾
HIGH
Nvidia AI demand stays dominant.
Park notes Nvidia is now roughly the size of the 7th-largest S&P 500 sector, and after earnings J.P. Morgan remains positive on the 70% growth framework. He also highlights that loan demand through Nvidia's financing platform doubled, showing that AI compute demand is still so strong that customers are seeking funding guarantees from Nvidia.
NVDA LONG
Dell enterprise AI demand strong.
Dell's results were clean: guidance was raised, AI server backlog hit a record, operating expense ratio hit a record low, and enterprise, neocloud and government customers are expanding. The margin improvement is unusual for a server assembler and supports enterprise AI demand.
DELL LONG
Broadcom AI customer base expands.
Broadcom initially fell after hours on slight guidance disappointment, but Park argues the important signal is that management said they doubled AI output capacity. Because Broadcom has historically depended on Google TPU orders, demonstrating supply to other AI customers would be the key to turning the stock around, and the market started to accept this during the call.
AVGO LONG
Snowflake earnings beat lifts stock.
Snowflake reported strong results and jumped about 21% after hours. It is part of a pattern where beaten-down software names with actual earnings beats are working even while many high-valuation software and security stocks struggle.
SNOW LONG
Google data center contract boosts EOSE.
EOS Energy, a small energy-storage name, rose sharply after signing a data center contract with Google. Park suggests it is a useful reference for investors watching ESS and data center power supply.
EOSE LONG
US refiners in historic bull market.
The U.S. refining industry is in one of its strongest bull markets, comparable only to the 2003 and 2013 surges. Geopolitical tension and U.S. energy dominance are keeping the space strong even as crude oil volatility rises.
XLE LONG
Korean memory cheap despite distrust.
Lee argues that on fundamentals Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are buyable after the sharp drop. KOSPI is only around 5.1x P/E, below the level that previously triggered rebounds, and the market is refusing to believe memory guidance. He views the capitulation and target-price cuts as a sentiment problem rather than a fundamental breakdown.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Fuel cells power AI data centers.
Doosan Fuel Cell signed a 500 billion won supply contract to deliver fuel cells to U.S. AI data centers from H2 2025 to H1 2028. This is evidence that U.S. power bottlenecks are severe enough to pay for expensive fuel-cell generation, supporting Korean power supply chains.
033260.KQ LONG
MLCC shortage powers Samsung Electro-Mechanics.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is showing relative strength on repeated MLCC shortage headlines, similar to early semiconductor supply shortages. It fell from 240,000 won to 86,000 won, but it is holding above its July panic zone and is attracting market interest after Samsung and SK Hynix.
009150.KS LONG
AI power equipment names rebound.
AI infrastructure and power names are rotating back up after the prior day's fall. Sanil Electric, HD Hyundai Electric, LS Electric, and Hyosung Heavy are leading. U.S. names such as Constellation Energy, Vistra, Oklo, and NuScale were also strong, and AI server demand ultimately feeds AI data center power demand.
267260.KS LONG
010120.KS LONG
298040.KS LONG
Substrate AI recovery favors Simmtech.
Simmtech is positioned for a substrate recovery on Broadcom's AI outlook. If FCBGA substrate supply chains benefit, Korea Circuit, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Simmtech, and Isu Petasys can see rotation. Simmtech is already higher and basing in an uptrend with overhead supply nearby.
222800.KQ LONG
Daeduk breakout or pullback setup.
Daeduk Electronics has exited its downtrend and is building higher lows. A pullback to the low 100,000-won zone would offer a box-range entry, while a breakout opens a move toward 140,000-150,000 won. The semiconductor socket and substrate story supports it, but current entry is not ideal without a pullback or breakout.
Daeduk Electronics WATCH
KAI support break risks deeper drop.
Korea Aerospace Industries is technically weak: moving averages are in bearish alignment, highs and lows are falling, and the former breakout zone is at risk. If that support breaks, the stock could fall toward the low 90,000-won area, so Ha advises reducing rather than holding a full position.
047810.KS AVOID
GS E&C wins Donghae data center.
Kim's top construction pick is GS Engineering & Construction because the GS group plans a 1.2GW data center in Donghae using existing low-utilization coal-power grid infrastructure. At roughly 10 billion won per MW, phase one alone implies over 10 trillion won in construction revenue potential, and GS E&C is most likely to capture it as the group's construction arm. Valuation remains around 10x P/B and the data center story is not fully priced in.
006360.KS LONG
DL E&C growing data center orders.
DL E&C is a second pick because it also announced a data center push and expects about 2 trillion won of data center orders in H2 alone. The company lacks a GS-like captive group pipeline, so the exact size is harder to quantify, but its order momentum and direction make it a worthwhile secondary name.
375500.KS LONG
Buy gold on dips.
Park maintains a year-end positive gold view and sees the recent decline as profit-taking after a large run. She recommends adding on dips in stages rather than chasing strength.
GLD LONG
Cybersecurity demand accelerates.
AI agent adoption is shifting investor focus toward software and cloud names, and cybersecurity is seeing demand accelerate. Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike have run significantly, supported by double-digit revenue growth and improving subscription metrics, though valuation now leaves little room for error.
PANW LONG
CRWD LONG
Dividend ETFs for steady income.
Park recommends a core dividend portfolio combining US dividend growth, US high dividend active, covered call income, and Korean high-dividend and active dividend ETFs. The conservative mix lowers beta and yields roughly 4-6%, while an aggressive mix adds Nasdaq covered calls and a Korea plus dividend active ETF to target higher income.
TIGER US Dividend Dow Jones ETF LONG
PLUS LONG
161510.KS LONG
TIGER Korea Plus Dividend Active ETF LONG
Bitcoin must break 83k resistance.
Bitcoin's August rally is now supported more by spot demand than derivatives leverage, with open interest shrinking. The key test is the 83,000 dollar area and the 365-day moving average near 82,000-83,000; a strong break opens 90,000-100,000, while failure keeps it in a range with downside toward 76,500, 74,000, or even the high 60,000s if geopolitical shocks worsen.
BTC WATCH
Ethereum Clarity Act event dependent.
Ethereum ETF flows have stayed positive for 12 sessions and have flipped cumulative flows positive, helped by staking ETF demand. Clarity Act passage would be more bullish for Ethereum and other platform assets than Bitcoin, but failure of the September 15 cloture vote could hit Ethereum harder than Bitcoin, making it an event-driven watch.
ETH WATCH
Hyperliquid buyback mechanics support token.
Token buybacks are becoming an earnings-linked culture, led by Hyperliquid and Pump.fun, which account for about 90% of project buybacks. Hyperliquid's revenue-funded buybacks have supported the token even in a poor market, rising about 200% and reaching the global top ten, making buyback mechanics a real support for token holders.
HYPE LONG
New US token issuance benefits Coinbase Robinhood.
SEC Regulation Crypto creates exemption tracks for non-securities digital asset sales, opening a path for new U.S. token launches and user and investor participation. The clearest beneficiaries are exchanges and custodians that will list or custody new tokens, specifically Coinbase and Robinhood, along with their chains and base ecosystem.
COIN LONG
HOOD LONG
HIGH
03:07
Sep 03
Sep 03
IBIT FLIP
MSTR
COIN 1ST
BTC
▾
MED
Paper Bitcoin suits price-only exposure seekers.
For people who just want Bitcoin price exposure and do not understand or care about real Bitcoin, paper Bitcoin is fine; this can be expressed through Bitcoin ETFs or Strategy or Strive products, including levered equity or preferred-style products.
IBIT LONG
MSTR LONG
Regulated delegated custody is now safer.
Delegated custody at regulated, audited, often public custodians like Coinbase, BitGo, and Backed is much safer than the Celsius, SBF, Quadriga, and Mt Gox era because they leave coins at rest and face public scrutiny; Coinbase is one of the big three public custodians.
COIN LONG
Real Bitcoin preferred when you understand it.
Collaborative multisig custody such as Swan Vault, Casa, or Unchained uses a 2-of-3 key setup with a company backup key; users can keep one key accessible and a second key offsite, so losing one key or the company failing does not cause loss, making it robust and probably the right move after the Coldcard incident.
BTC LONG
MED
03:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
The Korean Stock Market I Don't Want to Buy... When Will Stock Prices Rise Again? | CEO Lee Kwon-hee
AVGO
Korean semiconductor supply chain
007660.KS
196170.KQ
009150.KS
▾
HIGH
Broadcom earnings confirm AI infrastructure expansion.
Broadcom's latest earnings were better than the prior IR and confirm that AI infrastructure investment is expanding, with severe component shortages, but the stock is still being doubted by the market.
AVGO LONG
Korean semiconductor component demand remains strong.
Korea's semiconductor-related names including substrates, MLCC, equipment and solder-ball suppliers are running hot because of AI-driven demand and shortages, but share prices are not reflecting this; he argues this is an earnings-driven setup that should eventually matter.
Korean semiconductor supply chain LONG
Watch Isu Petasys retake 120,000 won.
Isu Petasys is the stock to watch after Broadcom's solid report because it normally reacts to Broadcom; it held a positive candle even in the prior plunge, and is now testing whether it can retake the 120,000-won area, though fast profit-taking is a risk.
007660.KS WATCH
Altogen catalysts strong and valuation cheap.
Altogen won a clean dismissal across multiple Halozyme legal cases and then announced a 4.4-trillion-won total package technology export to Novartis, Korea's largest; with total licensing value near 17 trillion won and a PER of 57x versus around 80x for Samsung Biologics at IPO, he views the valuation as cheap despite the weak market reaction.
196170.KQ LONG
Samsung Electro-Mechanics fundamentals strong but valuation constrained.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is receiving continued analyst upgrades with Q3 operating profit revisions, AI part shortages, better mix and strong FCBGA/MLCC positioning, but the stock is being held back by valuation after years of multiple compression from pulling forward future earnings.
009150.KS WATCH
HPSP high-margin memory/foundry equipment play.
HPSP got a positive call from BNK with a 66,000-won target; it earns over 50% operating margin on 47 billion won revenue, has memory-driven strength this year, and foundry orders are expected to build next year.
403870.KQ LONG
DI and ISC benefit from Vietnam builds.
Vietnam's large semiconductor fab build-out is drawing in Korean equipment and sockets; DI and ISC, which supply test equipment and related sockets, were the names that rose on that theme.
003160.KS LONG
095340.KQ LONG
Hanmi Semiconductor wins TSMC packaging equipment delivery.
Hanmi Semiconductor disclosed that it passed testing and actually delivered 2.5D packaging equipment to TSMC, a meaningful customer validation in advanced packaging.
042700.KS LONG
Duksan Hi-Metal solder ball demand double potential.
Duksan Hi-Metal makes solder balls used in packaging, with demand improving across all products; 2026 revenue is expected to rise 124% and operating margin to 14.6%, customer capacity expansions make the stock too cheap at around 10,000 won versus a 23,000-won target, and monthly export data confirm the trend.
077360.KQ LONG
Watch BHI nuclear equipment technical bounce.
BHI is one of the nuclear power equipment names the speaker likes; it has been pressed down but is at a technical inflection where it needs to turn higher today or risk breaking the 5-day/20-day moving averages, so it is a watch-and-confirm bounce setup.
083650.KQ WATCH
Watch Doosan Fuel Cell contract rebound.
Doosan Fuel Cell secured a 6.5-trillion-won-plus fuel cell contract, but the stock sold off heavily with volume; he sees fundamental support because data centers must pay for fuel cells despite high cost, and is watching whether it can rebound and retake its important technical level.
336260.KS WATCH
Hyundai Motor has unconfirmed Nvidia JV upside.
Hyundai Motor could rally if unconfirmed market chatter proves true that Nvidia is sending researchers to the Saemangeum area and may form a roughly 30-trillion-won joint venture with Hyundai Motor; he explicitly says this is not confirmed but if it breaks the stock would likely move.
005380.KS WATCH
Secondary batteries buyable after pullback.
Secondary battery stocks have been hit hard and are now in a pullback-and-rise timing zone, so the speaker says they can be bought after being pressed; macro issues such as a new tariff comment or a back-up in rates could shake them again.
Korean secondary battery sector LONG
Korean indices in slow upward correction.
He interprets the current market as a slow upward market within a short-term correction, not the start of a bear phase, and says there is no need to be pessimistic; the KOSPI's low forward valuation implies the market does not believe guidance, which could be the eventual re-rating driver if trust returns.
EWY LONG
KOSDAQ LONG
HIGH
02:27
Sep 03
Sep 03
PLTR 1ST
CRWD 1ST
GLD
SILVER 1ST
BTC
▾
HIGH
AI adoption boosts cybersecurity software.
AI agent adoption is rotating investor interest from semiconductors and power infrastructure toward software and cloud, and cybersecurity vendors such as Palantir and CrowdStrike are seeing demand surge with double-digit revenue growth and improving subscription metrics, supporting their recent strength.
PLTR LONG
CRWD LONG
Buy gold and silver on dips.
After a strong one-month run, gold and silver are seeing profit-taking, but Park maintains a year-end bullish stance and advises accumulating in tranches on pullbacks rather than chasing high prices.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
Clarity bill and dollar weakness boost crypto.
Crypto is being supported by debasement trade, dollar weakness, expectations for the Clarity bill around September 15, and a short squeeze as bearish positions are liquidated; within crypto, Bitcoin and Solana are outperforming while Ethereum and other altcoins lag, and RWA-related crypto plays are strong.
BTC LONG
SOL LONG
Nuclear power bottleneck theme remains intact.
Nuclear power construction is pulling back on profit-taking after a strong run, but despite doubts about AI capex, interest in the power bottleneck beyond semiconductors continues and supply-demand tightness should keep the theme relevant.
Nuclear power plant construction WATCH
Samsung-SK group ETF merits consideration.
A newly listed ETF combines Samsung and SK group affiliates with top 10 concentration, highest Samsung and SK Hynix weights, and diversified related subsidiaries; it offers strategic industrial exposure plus governance and shareholder-return beneficiaries.
KIWOOM Samsung SK Group Top 4 Plus ETF LONG
Conservative dividend ETF portfolio yields monthly income.
For conservative investors, she recommends pairing US dividend growth exposure via TIGER US Dividend Dow Jones with PLUS US High Dividend Active, plus S&P 500 covered call and diversified Korean PLUS High Dividend ETFs to lower beta, target roughly 4 to 6 percent annual yield, and generate monthly income with better downside support.
S&P 500 Covered Call Dividend ETF LONG
161510.KS LONG
TIGER US Dividend Dow Jones ETF LONG
PLUS LONG
Higher-beta dividend ETFs maximize income.
For risk-neutral investors seeking higher income with some capital upside, she keeps the same US dividend growth and high-dividend core but replaces the S&P 500 covered call with a higher-beta Nasdaq covered call and adds TIMEFOLIO Korea Plus Dividend Active to raise yield and pursue active income maximization.
QYLD LONG
TIMEFOLIO Korea Plus Dividend Active ETF LONG
Steady dividend ETF investing reduces stress.
Dividend ETFs are suited to investors who want stock exposure with lower stress because dividend stocks have lower volatility and provide recurring income, and steady investing is the core answer.
Dividend ETFs LONG
Korean tax policy favors high-dividend stocks.
Korea's new separate dividend tax regime for high-dividend companies lowers tax on large dividend income from up to 49.5 percent to 20 to 30 percent, creating incentives for companies to raise payouts and potentially fueling stock demand; ETFs and REITs are excluded, so individual high-dividend companies are the direct beneficiaries.
Korean high-dividend stocks LONG
Mandatory buyback cancellation supports shareholder returns.
The revised commercial law now mandates treasury stock cancellation, so buybacks reduce share count, mechanically raise EPS, and should support prices; Korean companies that combine dividends, buybacks, and efficient capital allocation are attractive.
Korean shareholder return stocks LONG
Coca-Cola and Apple exemplify shareholder returns.
The US market has already proven shareholder return effects: Coca-Cola has paid and grown dividends for over 50 years and is favored by Buffett, while Apple since 2012 has used large buybacks to reduce share count and lift per-share value, helping both trends stay upward.
KO LONG
AAPL LONG
Avoid blindly chasing high dividend yields.
High dividend yield alone can be a trap because yield rises when stock price falls; Leggett & Platt cut its dividend 89 percent in April 2024 after its displayed yield spiked, so investors must verify whether dividends are actually growing and sustainable.
High dividend yield stocks AVOID
Use Korean dividend ETFs for diversified exposure.
For investors who cannot screen individual high-dividend and buyback names, diversified Korean dividend ETFs, including PLUS, KODEX, and SOL high dividend products, financial holding dividend ETFs, and newer total shareholder return and buyback ETFs, provide a practical way to capture the policy and buyback theme.
SOL Korea High Dividend ETF LONG
KODEX High Dividend ETF LONG
SOL Financial Holding ETF LONG
PLUS Buyback & Dividend ETF LONG
KODEX Shareholder Return High Dividend ETF LONG
HIGH
02:04
Sep 03
Sep 03
Korean MLCC and substrate sector
001820.KS
222800.KQ
US Treasury yields
SPY
▾
HIGH
Korean MLCC/substrate sector is leading.
MLCC, substrates, and sockets have become a leading Korean materials/components sector. Tier-1 MLCC makers are reallocating capacity toward AI server high-value MLCC and raising prices, which reduces commodity supply and creates share and pricing opportunities for tier-2 players; AI MLCC demand is stronger than expected.
Korean MLCC and substrate sector LONG
MLCC price hikes boost Samwha Capacitor.
Samwha Capacitor recovered double-digit operating margin in Q2 on utilization gains alone, with MLCC ASP not yet rising. As MLCC price increases from Q3 and high-margin film-capacitor demand from data centers and semiconductor power infrastructure flow through, earnings should accelerate; the analyst sees 2027 revenue around 400bn won and operating profit around 60bn won, with 2028 top line potentially 600bn won and past-cycle 20–30% operating margins possible against a 1.1trn market cap, though Q4 earnings are seasonally weak.
001820.KS LONG
AI sockets drive Simmtech's margin inflection.
Simmtech's new AI socket/module substrate business is ramping sharply: socket revenue is expected to rise from 25bn won in Q2 to about 75.7bn won in Q4 and an annualized 340bn won next year on Nvidia Rubin adoption and strong demand from the top three memory customers. Socket's revenue share rising from 4.8% to 12.7% is driving a mix-driven margin inflection, and the analyst argues valuation near 11.6x 2027 earnings is attractive, with limited equity-raise risk because customer investment support is likely, though much of the ramp may already be reflected by Q4.
222800.KQ LONG
Weak jobs data lowers yields, lifts equities.
Park expects US employment to remain soft enough to lift unemployment toward 4.2%, and argues the oil-driven rise in interest rates will reverse as labor data weaken. Equities, which sold off on the oil/rate scare, should rebound once the employment data confirms the slowdown, and this pattern may persist.
US Treasury yields SHORT
SPY LONG
Pullbacks offer entry before bull market.
Quantitatively, buying a stock about one month after a 52-week high has produced higher returns than chasing immediately; the recent sharp two-to-three day drops in last month's leaders such as cosmetics and secondary batteries look like a cup-with-handle shakeout before fresh upside. The speaker sees September as a seed-sowing window before a 7–10 month bull market, and would combine the pullback with fundamental selection.
EWY LONG
Semiconductor index needs more correction time.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is described as the most vulnerable major chart: it is below its 5-week moving average, the monthly rebound failed and closed below the 5-month moving average, and the speaker believes the semiconductor sector needs more time correction through this month after prior excess gains and heavy exposure to Nvidia, Broadcom, and memory names.
SMH AVOID
HIGH
01:51
Sep 03
Sep 03
IEF
TLT
Fed Funds Rate
US short-term Treasury yields
ITB 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid long-duration nominal Treasury bonds.
Hanke says investors should stay away from bonds, especially long bonds, because money supply growth is accelerating (7.9% YoY versus 5.4% last year) and with a 12-24 month lag that will push inflation and bond yields higher. He expects the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields could rise another 50 basis points into a 'red zone', with additional pressure from the Iran war, fiscal deficits, and bond vigilantes.
IEF AVOID
TLT AVOID
Fed will hike short rates.
Hanke believes the Fed is likely to raise the Fed funds rate at the next meeting because Chair Warsh wants to slow money supply growth to bring inflation down. Three FOMC members already voted for hikes, Warsh can bring others along, and Hanke puts his subjective probability near 80%, above the market's 64%, pushing short-end yields up more than the long end.
Fed Funds Rate LONG
US short-term Treasury yields LONG
US housing is in a slump.
Hanke says mortgage rates are keyed off the 10-year Treasury and are now higher than at any time since the 2008 financial crisis, making the housing market sluggish and in a slump. Trump's tariffs on Canadian logs also raise lumber costs and add about $8,500 to the price of an average new home.
ITB AVOID
Lumber prices up on tariffs.
Lumber prices are way up because Trump's trade war and tariffs with Canada raise the cost of imported logs used for US lumber and homebuilding, adding roughly $8,500 to the price of an average new home.
WOOD LONG
Hormuz closure keeps oil supply risk.
Hanke says the Venezuela oil deal will not bring down oil prices meaningfully: even the stated 1.5 million barrels per day increase would leave output below Venezuela's 1998 peak, and PDVSA's extremely slow reserve depletion rate means most reserves have little present value without major investment and open privatization.
BNO WATCH
WTI WATCH
HIGH
01:43
Sep 03
Sep 03
EWY
Korean rare earth stocks
POSCO International
229640.KS 1ST
127120.KQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Stabilizing Treasury yields support KOSPI recovery.
September is a weak-first, strong-later tactical setup around the September 24 US-China summit and Chuseok holiday. The speaker expects aggressive US-China rhetoric into mid-September and pre-holiday foreign selling pressure. If the index gets shaken toward Chuseok, he would use cash to buy; if it stays stable into mid-September, he would raise cash and de-risk into the event.
EWY WATCH
Rare earths become September China-risk theme.
China's strongest negotiating card is rare earths. China controls about 60% of rare earth mining and about 94% of neodymium magnet production, and these magnets are essential for advanced industries and humanoid robots. As US-China tensions escalate into the September summit, rare earths are likely to become a major recurring theme, especially if China threatens export restrictions.
Korean rare earth stocks WATCH
POSCO International builds non-China rare earth chain.
POSCO International is a large-cap Korean rare earth name. It is preparing non-China vertical integration in the US with a local partner, mining rare earths and producing permanent magnets in the US. The key edge is that it uses non-Chinese ore and non-Chinese magnet production, which matters more than short-term rare earth prices.
POSCO International LONG
LS Eco Energy rides Lynas partnership.
LS Eco Energy is connected to rare earths through its collaboration with Lynas, one of the largest non-Chinese rare earth producers. This partnership gives it a specific rare earth supply-chain angle if rare earth headlines escalate in September.
229640.KS LONG
JS Link pure rare earth magnet play.
JS Link is viewed as the highest-purity rare earth and magnet play among Korean names. Lynas invested KRW 53.4 billion through a third-party allotment, and JS Link has an existing 1-ton plant in Yesan with plans to scale toward 9,000 tons globally. The speaker uses the Lynas placement price of KRW 32,000 as a downside level and sees the stock as a short to mid-term rare earth trading vehicle in September.
127120.KQ LONG
Geopolitical risk supports Korean defense stocks.
Defense stocks should be watched because geopolitical risk is not over. The US-Iran conflict continues, and US-China tensions may resurface with military drills or aggressive headlines before the September summit, supporting Korean defense names.
Korean defense stocks WATCH
Hanwha Aerospace K9 European order momentum.
Hanwha Aerospace has strong K9 self-propelled howitzer order momentum, including its first entry into Western Europe, which broadens its European reference beyond Eastern Europe. The stock has been consolidating while its fundamentals and orders improve, making it a key defense idea.
012450.KS LONG
LIG Nex1 benefits from US missile restocking.
LIG Nex1 is a Korean missile maker benefiting from two momentum drivers: continued order momentum and the US need to replenish missile inventories that have been depleted by Iran-related strikes. The speaker frames this as a geopolitical defense restocking play.
064350.KQ LONG
Memory upcycle supports Samsung and SK hynix.
Nvidia confirmed memory price increases are larger than expected and should rise further next year, but SK hynix and Samsung Electronics did not rally because high Treasury yields are compressing valuations. The speaker sees memory fundamentals becoming stronger while the market waits for macro and rate headwinds to clear.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
HIGH
01:30
Sep 03
Sep 03
Korean construction sector
006360.KS 1ST
375500.KS 1ST
002990.KS 1ST
013580.KS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Korean data-center construction sector remains attractive.
Korean construction is in an early-stage AI data center build-out. Large domestic general contractors have already built oil/gas plants, power plants and nuclear facilities, and data centers are closer to plant work than ordinary buildings because power and cooling are the two critical requirements. The recent construction-sector pullback was mechanical profit-taking after a strong run, not a fundamental change, so the data center theme remains valid for H2 and the sector is attractive at current levels.
Korean construction sector LONG
GS E&C top pick on Donghae data center.
GS E&C is the top pick because GS group is first-moving on the Donghae data center project: targeting a 100MW start around November and 1.2GW completion by 2028. At roughly 10 billion won per MW, the project alone could represent over 10 trillion won of construction cost, and as a GS affiliate GS E&C is likely to receive the work, potentially pulling in 10 trillion won of revenue at typical construction margins. Valuation is still only around 10x and the full data center expectation is not yet reflected.
006360.KS LONG
DL E&C second pick on data centers.
DL E&C is the second-choice data center construction name. It lacks the powerful affiliate data center anchor that GS E&C has, but at its second-quarter result it announced plans to win about 2 trillion won of data center orders in the second half alone. As data center orders increase across the industry, that exposure can contribute materially to earnings, although the exact size is harder to quantify because there is no fixed gigawatt or amount as with GS.
375500.KS LONG
Public construction budget favors small/mid builders.
The new government budget confirms a public-sector supply strategy. Construction companies with high public-order exposure, especially small/mid builders, should become more favorable. Named beneficiaries include Kumho Engineering & Construction, Kyeryong Construction Industrial, Hanshin Engineering & Construction and Dongbu Construction because they win significant LH/public projects.
002990.KS LONG
013580.KS LONG
004960.KS LONG
005960.KS LONG
HIGH
01:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
Crédito privado brasileiro
Debêntures brasileiras
CRA/CRI de pessoa física
Debêntures de varejo
Bancos brasileiros
▾
HIGH
Crédito privado brasileiro tem expansão estrutural.
O mercado de crédito privado brasileiro passou por forte desintermediação bancária, saindo de cerca de 70 debêntures em 2014 para mais de 2.000 papéis, com expansão de fundos de crédito, FIDCs, CRAs, CRIs e outros instrumentos. Em um país historicamente de juros altos, o crédito aparece como a classe com maior potencial de crescimento, oferecendo risco intermediário entre o soberano e a renda variável, menor volatilidade e demanda crescente, sobretudo após 2021 com a migração de investidores que saíram de multimercados e ações.
Crédito privado brasileiro LONG
Debêntures brasileiras LONG
Pessoa física sofre haircut maior em RJ.
Nas recuperações judiciais brasileiras, a parte mais fragilizada é a classe pulverizada, especialmente pessoas físicas detentoras de CRAs, CRIs e debêntures, porque têm dificuldade de organização e pouco poder de negociação. No caso Pão de Açúcar, essas pessoas físicas receberam haircut muito maior que os bancos. Quem não comparece à assembleia de credores acaba sendo o mais prejudicado, e o DIP financing acentua essa assimetria ao permitir que bancos aportem dinheiro novo em troca de condições mais vantajosas.
CRA/CRI de pessoa física AVOID
Debêntures de varejo AVOID
Bancos se beneficiam em recuperações judiciais.
No atual ciclo de recuperações judiciais, os bancos são os grandes beneficiados porque têm maior poder de negociação e capacidade de fazer DIP financing, aportando dinheiro novo em troca de pacotes de reestruturação mais vantajosos e haircuts menores em relação aos credores pulverizados.
Bancos brasileiros LONG
HIGH
01:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
JPY 1ST
NVDA
MU
ORCL
AVGO
▾
HIGH
Yen strength is key to cool yields.
Ha sees the Japanese yen as the key macro variable for September: a decisive BOJ rate hike and stronger yen are needed to end yen weakness, and that is the main way to cool the global surge in Treasury yields. He wants to use yen strength and any softening in US Treasury yields as the market barometer, expecting a firmer yen to help stabilize global bond markets.
JPY LONG
AI infrastructure remains leading demand story.
He notes the overnight rebound was led by the classic AI infrastructure complex—AI semiconductors, memory, servers, hardware, and power/nuclear—with money rotating back into Nvidia and Micron. Despite macro fears from oil and yields, the AI infrastructure demand story remains intact and these names are still leading.
NVDA LONG
MU LONG
Oracle struggles more when yields rise.
Oracle is the most rate-sensitive large tech name because it carries large overseas debt and a high CDS premium. When US Treasury yields rise, Oracle reacts more than other tech names and can be hit harder, so he flags it as a rising-rate risk rather than a fresh buying opportunity.
ORCL AVOID
Broadcom's AI growth remains strong.
Broadcom delivered a strong earnings beat with AI semiconductor revenue up about 221% year over year and next-quarter AI guidance accelerating, while also raising long-term AI revenue targets. The after-hours dip was only because the overall revenue guide was slightly below consensus, but the core AI acceleration makes the report positive.
AVGO LONG
AI software earnings broadening beyond hardware.
Beyond hardware, AI software names are now showing real earnings and guidance improvements—Salesforce, Okta, CrowdStrike, and Snowflake are all improving. This means AI monetization is broadening from semiconductor hardware into software and security, supporting the whole AI software complex.
CRM LONG
OKTA LONG
CRWD LONG
SNOW LONG
SK Hynix Japan investment supports suppliers.
If SK Hynix seriously invests in a new memory fab in Japan and expands elsewhere, the first expected beneficiaries are Korean semiconductor equipment and materials makers, construction firms, and power-transmission names tied to fab infrastructure. She frames this as a theme to monitor rather than a confirmed near-term order.
Korean semiconductor equipment and materials LONG
Korean construction LONG
Korean power transmission LONG
Power equipment and cable names bullish.
Power equipment and cable names are breaking out on government infrastructure spending around the Honam semiconductor cluster and structural grid demand. He highlights the major power equipment trio—Hyosung Heavy Industries, LS Electric, and HD Hyundai Electric—and adds that Sanil Electric offers a lighter, more elastic swing trade after holding its 20-day line.
298040.KS LONG
010120.KS LONG
267260.KS LONG
000500.KQ LONG
Cheap Korean semiconductor equipment names attractive.
Many Korean semiconductor equipment and materials names are cheap despite explosive earnings growth. He singles out DI, Hanam Micron, Wonik Q&C, and Wonik Materials as names where valuation still looks attractive relative to operating profit growth, making them candidates for selective longer-term buying.
D.I. Corporation LONG
067310.KQ LONG
Wonik Q&C LONG
Wonik Materials LONG
Buy undervalued cosmetics on market weakness.
Cosmetics is one of only two sectors making new highs alongside banks, and recent pullbacks have not produced heavy selling volume. He says Korea Kolmar is still undervalued and suggests using September weakness to buy attractive cosmetics names on dips for portfolio balance and defensive new-high momentum.
KORU LONG
161890.KS LONG
Isu Petasys key Broadcom-related Korean play.
Isu Petasys is the Korean name that tends to react to Broadcom, and it held a green candle during the prior day's crash on Broadcom expectations. He says it may challenge the 120,000-won area again, but because these setups often get sold when charts become too pretty, he prefers buying weakness rather than chasing strength.
007660.KS LONG
Solder-ball maker too cheap for growth.
Duksan Hi-Metal makes solder balls used in semiconductor packaging, and every product line is trending upward. He cites 2026 revenue growth of 124% year over year, operating margin around 14.6%, and a target price of 23,000 won versus roughly 9,950 won, arguing the stock is too cheap despite strong front-end demand.
Duksan Hi-Metal LONG
Hanmi Semiconductor wins TSMC packaging equipment.
Hanmi Semiconductor has now passed TSMC testing and actually supplied TSMC with its 2.5D packaging equipment. This confirms its position in advanced-package and high-bandwidth memory equipment and supports the long-term equipment story.
042700.KS LONG
High-margin HPSP positive on memory/foundry.
HPSP is a high-margin semiconductor process equipment name: third-quarter revenue around 47 billion won with operating profit near 24.8 billion won, and BNK Securities is positive with a target of 66,000 won. Memory drives this year and foundry orders may drive next year.
403870.KQ LONG
Alteogen major legal and export catalysts.
Alteogen has a double catalyst: a legal victory because Halozyme lost all cases, and a 4.4 trillion-won technology export deal with Novartis—the largest in Korea—yet the stock only closed flat due the weak market. He sees the news as genuinely positive and the valuation as reasonable at PER 57 versus Samsung Biologics' 80+ at listing.
196170.KQ LONG
Secondary batteries trade after sharp pullback.
Secondary battery stocks have fallen hard and are pressing against heavy supply zones. He says they are okay to buy from a trading perspective after being pushed down and starting to bounce, though not an unconditional strong buy because macro issues can shake them again.
Korean secondary battery sector LONG
Samsung Electronics level-based setup.
Samsung Electronics is the market's key barometer: he wants to see it hold 250,000 won and then break 255,000 won. If it holds that support, he sees upside open to 270,000 won, but at the current ambiguous mid-box he would not chase and prefers waiting for the level to confirm.
005930.KS WATCH
SK Hynix watch 1.65m break.
SK Hynix needs to break 1,650,000 won to open upside toward 1,800,000 won. Support remains 1,615,000 won, and as long as that holds he sees a possible technical rebound, but a loss of support would reduce conviction.
000660.KS WATCH
Buy test socket names on custom AI.
Broadcom and Marvell earnings confirm non-Nvidia custom AI demand is growing, which raises demand for semiconductor test sockets. Among the three socket names, TSE is strongest with DDR5/HBM socket expansion, while ISC has SK Hynix concentration and a lower price area; he prefers ISC and TSE depending on risk appetite, while Leeno is held back by labor issues.
ISC LONG
TSE LONG
TFE LONG
Samsung Electro-Mechanics break triggers substrate rally.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is seeing foreign and institutional buying. He says it must hold 1,300,000 won, and if it breaks 1,450,000 won, that would likely trigger strong follow-through in the four major Korean substrate makers, but he still sees the current entry as ambiguous.
009150.KS WATCH
Korean substrate four majors WATCH
Doosan Enerbility nuclear band attractive.
Doosan Enerbility is attractive in the 70,000–80,000 won range because nuclear power buildout is still expanding and skilled nuclear workers are becoming scarce, supporting pricing and project growth. He likes its band and views nuclear as a policy-supported energy source.
034020.KS LONG
Taekwang preferred LNG data-center fitting play.
LNG remains the near-term usable power source for data centers, and Korean pipe fitting names are leveraged to US LNG terminals. Among Taekwang and Sungkwang Bend, Sungkwang Bend is more pure-play US LNG terminal/piping, while Taekwang has more diversified revenue and stronger cash/assets, so he prefers Taekwang for future growth exposure.
Taekwang Industrial LONG
108860 LONG
Secondary batteries rally if SDI breaks 550,000.
He sets conditional levels for a secondary battery rally: KOSDAQ above 820 points and especially Samsung SDI reclaiming 550,000 won would open strength in names like EcoPro BM, EcoPro, and Daejoo Electronic Materials. Until those levels break, it is not yet an aggressive buying window.
006400.KS WATCH
247540.KQ WATCH
086520.KQ WATCH
078600.KQ WATCH
HIGH
00:37
Sep 03
Sep 03
AVGO 1ST
HPE 1ST
222800.KQ 1ST
001820.KS 1ST
009150.KS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Buy quality AI semiconductor leader on dips.
Broadcom delivered revenue, EPS and AI semiconductor revenue above consensus, with AI semiconductor revenue up 221% year over year. Management issued FY2027/FY2028 AI revenue targets roughly doubling annually and said the guidance is conservative. Even though a rising mix of lower-margin semiconductor revenue slightly dilutes margins, EPS should be revised upward and the valuation has compressed to about 20x forward earnings. The speaker views Broadcom as a quality compounder and would use weakness, especially during September rate and volatility dips, as a buying opportunity.
AVGO LONG
AI server orders boost earnings and valuation.
HPE posted strong cloud/AI and networking results with guidance above consensus and record AI orders of $3.1 billion plus backlog of $7.6 billion. Enterprise AI demand is moving from pilot to production, and the company is showing strong operating leverage: revenue grew about 34% while operating profit rose about 155%, lifting operating margin from 8.5% to 16.2%. The stock trades near 12.9x earnings, which the analyst sees as reasonable and potentially closer to mid-teens, keeping the AI server cycle intact.
HPE LONG
AI socket ramp lifts margins and earnings.
Simmtech is benefiting from the AI memory module and socket ramp and is investing 270bn won to expand AI socket/module substrate and MSAP capacity. Socket revenue is forecast to jump from 25bn won in Q2 to 80bn won by Q4 as NVIDIA's Rubin platform starts adoption. Socket margins are well above the company's base business, so the mix shift should sharply lift overall operating margin. The analyst says customer-driven demand and support/prepayments reduce the risk of a rights offering, and the stock trades at an attractive 11.6x FY2027 EPS.
222800.KQ LONG
MLCC upcycle turns earnings sharply upward.
Samwha Capacitor, a tier-2 MLCC maker, is entering an MLCC upcycle with tier-1 price hikes starting to flow through. Second-quarter operating margin recovered to double digits for the first time in eight quarters, and that was before price increases. From Q3, price hikes by tier-1 names like Samsung Electro-Mechanics should lift tier-2 volume and pricing. Its film capacitor business for data-center and transformer power electronics carries higher margins and is entering a new order cycle. The analyst models 2027 revenue/operating profit of about 400bn/60bn won and sees potential for 2028 operating profit of 120–200bn won if MLCC margins normalize, making the current 1.1trn market cap attractive relative to Samsung Electro-Mechanics' 30–50x multiple.
001820.KS LONG
MLCC price hikes boost third-quarter earnings.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics' MLCC component segment improved operating margin from 11% to 17% in Q2 based only on utilization, before reflecting price hikes. With tier-1 MLCC pricing increases starting in August, the price effect should begin to appear from Q3, supporting further earnings improvement. AI server high-capacitance MLCC demand is driving tier-1 capacity conversion and favorable pricing.
009150.KS LONG
Monopoly biotech trades below 30x forward.
Alteogen signed a 4.4trn-won deal that represents roughly 30% of prior SC-type hyaluronidase injection deal volume, but the stock barely rallied in weak market sentiment. As Korea's largest biotech by market cap with a monopoly on its platform, it trades below 30x forward earnings on 2026–2027 estimates and should perform well when KOSDAQ sentiment improves.
196170.KQ LONG
Sideways until decisive break above 83k.
Bitcoin is stuck in a sideways range after being rejected at resistance; the key level is 83,000, and unless it breaks out strongly above that, the analyst expects continued sideways/range trading. The 50-day moving average is overhead resistance, but the supply cloud is shrinking. Once the market enters and absorbs that overhead inventory, a more tradeable move may develop. Spot ETF flows have begun to show some outflows, supporting near-term range caution.
BTC WATCH
New blockchain fees add early revenue momentum.
Robinhood's blockchain/L2 chain has shown strong early traction: TVL is near $780m and rising, memecoin trading is driving chain fees, and current daily fees around $3m imply roughly $100m annualized added revenue. The core brokerage is already strong, and the new chain adds optionality. This is encouraging even though it is early and not yet a large contributor to revenue.
HOOD LONG
AI electricity demand lifts nuclear and power.
AI-driven electricity demand is lifting US nuclear and power producers: Constellation Energy, Vistra, and GE Vernova rose on AI power demand and grid/power-infrastructure themes. The analyst highlights the same AI electricity-demand narrative supporting power-related stocks and expects a positive readthrough.
CEG LONG
VST LONG
GEV LONG
Theme stocks with weak fundamentals to avoid.
China's listed defense sector is mostly theme-driven rather than fundamental because important defense businesses are unlisted, export ratios are low, most revenue is domestic, and margins are low. The analyst says the sector's stocks move up and down on theme, not operational quality, so the sector should be viewed negatively.
China defense stocks AVOID
High valuations make software and cyber vulnerable.
Software and cybersecurity stocks sold off even when earnings were solid because high valuations and growth quality are a burden. Palo Alto, Palantir and CrowdStrike fell sharply, while the software ETF dropped 2.6%. The speaker highlights that high valuation and rotation toward AI hardware make software/cybersecurity vulnerable near term.
IGV AVOID
Weak ADP supports lower rates, Dow up.
US 10-year yields stopped rising after weak ADP employment and a more dovish New York Fed tone, reducing rate fear. The Dow bounced from its 60-day average and the speaker expects another positive close today.
DJI LONG
Bounces from 60-day average, room higher.
Nasdaq is expected to rise because the rate and oil pressure was not severe enough to stop a rebound. It started rebounding from its 60-day line and still has room to the 5-day moving average, so the analyst expects a positive close.
NASDAQ Composite LONG
High oil and rates create near-term pressure.
S&P 500 is expected to close lower because oil remains at a high level and Treasury yields, though off their highs, are still high enough to be a burden in a mixed market.
SPY SHORT
Oversold at 120-day average, bounce possible.
Philadelphia Semiconductor stocks are oversold and many names are 20–30% below highs. If yields and oil do not push higher, there is reason for a bounce from the 120-day moving average, so the analyst expects an up day.
SOXX LONG
HIGH
00:33
Sep 03
Sep 03
005930.KS
000660.KS
EWY
267260.KS
010120.KS
▾
HIGH
AI compute demand supports Samsung, Hynix.
Broadcom's earnings call offered a strong 2027-2028 outlook, Nvidia strengthened on AI backlog commentary, and Micron and SK hynix ADR recovered, implying AI GPU and compute demand is continuing. This should keep Samsung Electronics and SK hynix at the center of market strength, especially if foreign and program supply returns.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
KOSPI rebound likely on supply reversal.
Ha Chang-wan views the KOSPI short-term direction as upward. The prior session saw heavy foreign and institutional selling, but he expects a supply reversal; even half of the prior outflows returning could erase most of the previous day's decline. Overnight KOSPI futures rose 1.4%, though the key is whether foreign and program buying returns strongly.
EWY LONG
AI data center power demand lifts infrastructure.
AI server demand is effectively AI data center power demand. US names such as Constellation Energy, Vistra, Oklo and NuScale were strong, and Korean power infrastructure names that were beaten down are rebounding. Sanil Electric has an aggressive target-price upgrade, and HD Hyundai Electric, LS Electric and Hyosung Heavy Industries are also doing well; a Sanil Electric breakout would improve sector sentiment further.
267260.KS LONG
010120.KS LONG
298040.KS LONG
CEG LONG
VST LONG
OKLO LONG
SMR LONG
LNG project fuels steel pipe momentum.
LNG project themes are driving steel, pipe and valve names including Shin Steel, Kumkang Steel, Sungkwang Bend, Taekwang, Bukuk Steel and KBI Dongyang Steel Pipe. The group is rising sharply and drawing fast short-term rotation, but the move is speculative and should be traded tactically rather than chased blindly.
Shin Steel WATCH
Kumkang Steel WATCH
108860 WATCH
Taekwang Industrial WATCH
Bukuk Steel WATCH
KBI Dongyang Steel Pipe WATCH
Broadcom ASIC demand lifts Korean substrate names.
Broadcom's ASIC-related strength should benefit substrate and PCB names such as Korea Circuit, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Simmtech and Isu Petasys. Simmtech itself is in a higher-low uptrend, and if it breaks overhead supply, the upside would open significantly.
222800.KQ LONG
024110 LONG
009150.KS LONG
Isu Petasys LONG
Doosan benefits from CCL substrate recovery.
If the substrate market improves, Doosan benefits as a raw-material supplier for CCL. The stock has fallen significantly, so if it begins to rotate higher, the upside could open substantially.
000150.KS LONG
Alteogen tech export story supports upside.
Positive reports continue on Alteogen's ALT-B4 technology export story, with a large licensing-out scale around 4 trillion won, though assumptions need updating. The stock is building a base after a correction; it can be bought at box support with a tight stop or after a breakout of the prior high if investors believe the technology export thesis.
196170.KQ LONG
Korean banks benefit from buybacks, earnings.
Korean financials are improving because USD/KRW is falling, earnings expectations remain intact, and buyback and shareholder-return policy expectations are appearing in reports. KB Financial and Shinhan Financial are moving up consistently, though not in huge daily jumps, and are worth watching for continued grinding upside.
105560.KS LONG
055550.KS LONG
Daeduck socket story offers breakout setup.
Daeduck Electronics has exited its downtrend and is building a base. The semiconductor substrate and socket story is not bad because Nvidia socket efficiency expectations are growing. The setup is to buy near the early 100,000-won box support or on a breakout above the overhead line toward 140,000-150,000 won; a weekly and monthly basing breakout could produce a significant trend reversal.
353200.KS LONG
Korea Aerospace vulnerable; reduce on break.
Korea Aerospace is in a clear weekly downtrend with lower highs and lower lows and bearish moving-average alignment. If the key support or current box breaks, downside could open significantly toward the early 90,000-won area, so he recommends reducing positions on a break rather than holding fully.
047810.KS AVOID
HIGH
00:14
Sep 03
Sep 03
Thread Guy
9h
IBB
BTC
BNO
WEAT
HOOD
▾
HIGH
IBB daily chart looks bullish.
IBB's high-timeframe daily chart looks strong, and he calls it one of his favorite coins/charts, signaling a bullish setup in the biotechnology ETF.
IBB LONG
Bullish Bitcoin; must stay positioned.
Thread Guy says he is a bull on Bitcoin even though it is a weird spot, and that you have to be positioned in it. He earlier frames the crypto/onchain backdrop as mania led by the founder of the biggest retail exchange while Bitcoin pushes a key level and many panic that money will not return.
BTC LONG
Short Brent crude on bearish chart.
Brent crude oil is forming a bearish shoulder-neck-shoulder/head-and-shoulders top on the chart; he calls oil horrifying and says he is shorting Brent because it looks like it is about to break down.
BNO SHORT
Wheat rising on supply concerns.
Wheat is moving sharply on Black Sea supply concerns and El Nino weather risks, and he says he loves the move, which is a bullish agricultural commodity view.
WEAT LONG
Long Robinhood HOOD trade.
He says he likes the Robinhood trade and is bullish on HOOD; this follows his earlier market framing that Robinhood-listed coins and platform momentum are strong.
HOOD LONG
Watch AI onchain token's wild chart.
The onchain token AI has one of the craziest charts in a long time after what appears to be a $20 million clip purchase; he speculates the buyer could be Vlad/Robinhood using it as marketing spend before a listing, making it an extraordinary speculative setup to watch.
AI WATCH
Watch Farmmi memecoin short-squeeze setup.
Farmmi Inc (FAMI), a NASDAQ-listed mushroom agriculture penny stock, received a delisting warning and must hold a $1 bid for 10 days; an onchain memecoin tied to the stock has created a tokenized equity attention loop and short-squeeze attempt that 3xed/71% pumped the stock. He says it may get wild but the memecoin likely is a bundled rug, so it is a WATCH setup rather than a clean long.
FAMI WATCH
HIGH
00:08
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
9h
SMH
AI capex buildout
SKYY 1ST
IGV FLIP
MTUM
▾
HIGH
Semis, hyperscalers, software can rally together.
Discrete AI buckets are fading, but within the AI buildout the three buckets of hyperscalers, semiconductors, and software can and should do well together rather than one area winning at the other's expense, even with more dispersion among individual names.
SMH LONG
SKYY LONG
IGV LONG
AI capex buildout still accelerating.
The market is still in an AI capex buildout phase that is accelerating and remains a huge secular driver of an earnings super cycle, so investors can remain broadly bullish on AI even though the market will keep reassessing winners and losers.
AI capex buildout LONG
AI momentum can unwind painfully fast.
The summer momentum unwind, especially painful in July and continuing into August, showed that even investors who are very bullish on AI need to be careful with position sizing and leverage because momentum and crowded positioning can reverse abruptly.
MTUM WATCH
Treasuries, gold, real estate, Europe diversify AI.
J.P. Morgan constructed an AI factor thematic basket and found that many assets now move together with the AI buildout, making true diversification difficult; the few return streams less tied to AI are Treasuries, gold, core real estate, and European equities.
TLT LONG
GLD LONG
XLRE LONG
VGK LONG
HIGH
00:05
Sep 03
Sep 03
EWY FLIP
KOSDAQ
NASDAQ Composite
009150.KS
034020.KS
▾
HIGH
Expect partial KOSPI rebound today
He attributes yesterday's slide partly to yen-carry-related Japanese selling and foreign outflows, but says the selling is now known and global yields have paused; he expects a rebound attempt today that recovers roughly half of yesterday's KOSPI decline, with premarket KOSPI and KOSDAQ quotes up around 1-2%, while cautioning that this is not a trend reversal.
EWY LONG
KOSDAQ LONG
Nasdaq resilient, likely wants higher
He says the Nasdaq daily chart is unusually resilient relative to current macro negatives, showing only a shallow pullback; because the U.S. election makes a sharp negative catalyst less likely to break out before then, he reads the market as wanting to move higher once conditions stabilize, though two-way volatility remains.
NASDAQ Composite LONG
Samsung Electro-Mechanics shows strong MLCC rebound
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is attracting attention because MLCC shortage narratives continue; despite a prior deep drawdown from about 240,000 won to 86,000 won, it is holding with relative strength and is now seen as the next interesting Korean semiconductor-related name after Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, with a tendency to rally sharply when it moves.
009150.KS LONG
Buy strongest power/nuclear/battery leaders
When the market rebounds, the stocks that were strongest before the drop — nuclear, transformers/transmission, power equipment, and secondary-battery leaders including Samsung C&T, Doosan Enerbility, Samsung SDI, LS Electric, and Hyosung Heavy Industries — tend to move hardest; he advises staying in these strong leaders rather than laggards, because laggards fall hard and recover only a little.
034020.KS LONG
010120.KS LONG
298040.KS LONG
006400.KS LONG
028260.KS LONG
Samsung/SK Hynix dictate Korean market
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are the key market barometer: when they are stable, individual-stock rotation works, but when they weaken, the rest of the Korean market falls harder; their medium-term upside also hinges on whether the AI growth story succeeds, in which case he argues they would be much higher than today.
005930.KS WATCH
000660.KS WATCH
Japan yield rise pressures growth stocks
Japan's 10-year JGB yield rising above 3% weakens the incentive for Japanese banks and insurers to buy overseas bonds and equities, triggering yen-carry-related selling; if this pushes global long rates higher, it becomes a burden for AI tech and high-valuation growth stocks, though he does not expect uncontrolled blow-up before the U.S. election because the U.S. and Japan are coordinating.
AI tech/growth stocks WATCH
Visa stablecoin payment partnership is positive
The Dunamu-Visa partnership is significant because it joins Korean digital-asset technology with Visa's global payments network to build stablecoin payment and global remittance services; Korean banks are nearly ready as custodians and major platforms are preparing, so once regulation clears, likely next year, the stablecoin payment business can scale quickly.
V LONG
Packaging/glass substrate equipment leads rebound
Semiconductor packaging/glass-substrate equipment names were among the few strong groups during market weakness and are showing renewed strength as the market rebounds; he treats them as a leading pocket within Korean semiconductor equipment, though individual moves depend on company-specific news.
Korean semiconductor packaging equipment LONG
HIGH
00:02
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
9h
PCG 1ST
▾
HIGH
PG&E value unlocks if wildfire reform passes
PG&E has already done the operational turnaround—reducing wildfire risk, lowering rates five times in two years, and improving reliability 30%—but the stock is held back by a fixable wildfire liability tail risk that raises debt costs and deters investors. A targeted legislative fix would allow PG&E to reach investment grade, restore the $2 billion capex cut, grow earnings 9%+ annually, continue dividend growth, and unlock value.
PCG LONG
HIGH
00:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
Brazilian leveraged corporate credit
Brazilian corporate credit spreads
▾
HIGH
Juros altos prolongados quebram empresas alavancadas.
O problema brasileiro não é principalmente o nível de alavancagem das empresas, mas o custo da dívida. Com o crédito livre PJ médio ao redor de 25% ao ano, uma empresa alavancada quatro vezes dívida líquida sobre geração de caixa operacional consome 100% dessa geração apenas com juros. Juros altos acima de 12% a 13% mantidos por muito tempo, sem previsibilidade de queda para abaixo de 10%, fazem cada vez mais empresas de diversos setores ficarem pelo caminho.
Brazilian leveraged corporate credit AVOID
Spreads de crédito subestimados podem explodir.
O principal risco no mercado de crédito é a subestimação dos spreads. Investidores sistematicamente subestimam o risco, mantendo spreads muito baixos até surgir um problema; quando aparece notícia negativa, o movimento vira pânico e os spreads abrem 500 a 1000 pontos-base. Esse nível de spreads parece subestimado e é o principal risco atual.
Brazilian corporate credit spreads WATCH
HIGH
23:55
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
9h
Low-P/E stocks
High-P/E technology stocks
DELL
NVDA
MDB
▾
HIGH
Cheap low-P/E stocks beat expensive high-P/E stocks.
With the 30-year Treasury yielding 5.26% and limited new money entering stocks, big money managers are selling expensive high-P/E stocks as too risky and crowding into cheap low-P/E stocks; this explains the downside in high-growth technology, not a broken AI/data-center/momentum trade.
Low-P/E stocks LONG
High-P/E technology stocks SHORT
Dell is a cheap AI data-center winner.
Dell reported a great quarter, the stock trades below 20x earnings, and after the quarter Cramer says it could earn $25 per share; buyers are not fleeing the data center or tech broadly, they are fleeing high multiple tech, making Dell a low-multiple AI/data center winner and still a terrific stock to own even up 16%.
DELL LONG
Nvidia is cheap despite growth and fears.
Nvidia trades at 24x current earnings and about 14x next year's earnings despite phenomenal growth; Cramer vehemently disagrees with circular-financing bear arguments and says Nvidia's customers are making fortunes from its chips, so he prefers sticking with Nvidia.
NVDA LONG
MongoDB is too expensive; sell it.
MongoDB trades at almost 58x earnings and plunged 13.5% after a decent but not perfect quarter because it is too rich in a market where bond yields make expensive stocks too risky; Cramer says too rich equals sell.
MDB SHORT
ServiceNow is expensive versus Nvidia; avoid.
ServiceNow trades at 33.6x current earnings and 27x next-year earnings, much more expensive than Nvidia at 24x and 14x; in a rising-yield rotation out of high-multiple stocks, ServiceNow is unattractive relative to cheaper growth.
NOW AVOID
Corning likely falls more before re-entry.
Cramer sold Corning for the charitable trust to avoid turning a gain into a loss because Corning is a high-P/E stock vulnerable to the current multiple compression; he expects it to come down more before he gets back in, making it a near-term avoid and a watch for a lower re-entry.
GLW AVOID
Oracle can fall on data-center constraints.
Oracle's stock is hostage to data-center buildout loan/permit concerns; if anything indicates Oracle cannot build as many data centers as expected, the stock goes lower. Cramer prefers Nvidia and says Dell is still terrific, so Oracle is avoid.
ORCL AVOID
PG&E setup hinges on California liability reform.
PG&E has already reduced wildfire risk dramatically, lowered rates, improved reliability and has a pathway to investment grade, but the stock fell about 20% after California wildfire liability reform collapsed. A simple legislative fix or special session could unlock capital, restore $2B of capex, support 9%+ EPS growth and dividend growth; until that happens the stock is a legislative event-driven watch.
PCG WATCH
Cardinal Health is a cheap healthcare winner.
Cardinal Health is a high-quality healthcare distributor seeing rotation inflows away from expensive tech; it has been shifting to specialty pharma, generics, and higher-margin businesses, revenue misses stem from drug pricing while its fee-for-service volume model still works, and FY27 guidance implies 13-15% earnings growth at less than 20x earnings, a cheap safe haven.
CAH LONG
CVS is a buy-and-own healthcare stock.
CVS under CEO David Joyner has raised guidance, trades at a discount valuation with a 3% dividend and 25% upside, and Cramer says investors should own it rather than trade it; he wants to buy it for the charitable trust.
CVS LONG
Cyber stocks are on sale; buy them.
CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks and Rubrik have been trading down despite excellent quarters because investors are rotating out of software/security; Cramer says these cybersecurity stocks are being put on sale and the decline is an opportunity to buy.
CRWD LONG
PANW LONG
Cyber stocks are on sale; buy them.
Rubrik delivered its 10th consecutive quarter of outperformance with beats on topline, profitability and cash flow; demand is driven by AI-era cyber resilience and agentic security, and Rubrik's data infrastructure model is winning larger deals, supporting the stock after its post-earnings drop.
RBRK LONG
MP Materials is best play but slow.
MP Materials is the single best, most investable play on critical materials, which the US needs, but Cramer does not expect anything to happen soon and says the timeline has been long, making it a watch rather than a near-term catalyst trade.
MP WATCH
AeroVironment: too much defense competition, avoid.
Even though AeroVironment's stock is down sharply, Cramer says defense niche competition is so strong that he would not buy yet: 'not yet, not now'.
AVAV AVOID
Howmet remains best aerospace play; buy/hold.
Elon Musk's announcement that SpaceX will cast its own natural gas turbine blades hurt Howmet Aerospace, but Cramer believes it is unlikely to inflict lasting damage; Howmet is one of the best companies out there and the best way to play aerospace, so he says hold or buy.
HWM LONG
HIGH
23:31
Sep 02
Sep 02
Nox Metals
StarCloud 1ST
VGK 1ST
EWL 1ST
Mezzo 1ST
▾
HIGH
Nox Metals modernizes a huge metals market
Paige says Nox Metals is one of her fastest-growing portfolio companies: it is a next-day metal servicing platform between steel mills and downstream aerospace/defense manufacturers, addressing a $200B market with fewer than 40 software engineers employed in the industry.
Nox Metals LONG
StarCloud orbital data centers are winning
Katelin made a non-consensus seed bet on StarCloud, which puts GPUs on solar-powered satellites and has now reached a $2.3B valuation with Nvidia and Cisco investing. She believes orbital data centers are made viable by collapsing launch costs and the team's audacity.
StarCloud LONG
Europe's Zurich tech is undercapitalized
Katelin offers a contrarian Europe view: US VCs are irrationally scared of regulation, and Europe, especially Zurich, Switzerland, is producing some of the best physics and quantum work in the world while remaining dramatically undercapitalized. She would rather back a rational-priced Zurich quant team than another US agent wrapper.
VGK LONG
EWL LONG
EU regulation creates compliance moat
Paige says heavy EU regulation creates a moat for startups willing to eat the frog and do compliance first. Her portfolio company Mezzo built its AI engine to work in the hardest regulatory environment so it can later expand into less regulated markets.
Mezzo LONG
HGEN displaces natural gas with onsite hydrogen
Katelin reverse-engineered an infrastructure-for-the-inevitable investing framework and cites HGEN as an example: on-site hydrogen production for heavy industry that can take out natural gas and sits upstream of industrial re-shoring and energy bottlenecks.
HYDR LONG
Edge AI wins for sensitive factory data
Paige's 2024 multimodal AI thesis led her to back Manva, which runs local edge AI models on factory floors for quality assurance and safety. She believes edge AI is the future where sensitive data or compute constraints make cloud-only models unworkable.
Manva LONG
Edge AI LONG
More launch providers will win space
Katelin argues the US space economy should not be a SpaceX-only single point of failure. She believes multiple launch providers can win without catching SpaceX, and Stoke Space's fully reusable two-stage rocket is one such delivery-van beneficiary.
U.S. space economy LONG
Vertical physical AI reaches revenue faster
Paige focuses on verticalized physical AI applications rather than general-purpose robotics because they reach revenue and commercialization faster and avoid the massive dilution of capital-intensive general-purpose platforms.
Verticalized physical AI LONG
Top talent is now building physical AI
Katelin sees the physical AI and hardware boom as more than a bubble: the best engineers have shifted from ad tech to building rocket engines and hard tech, and hardware is now treated as a moat. She echoes Jensen's prediction that every industrial company will become a robotics company.
Physical AI LONG
Build vertical on-prem LLMs, avoid labs
Jason argues startups built on Frontier Lab APIs risk being rug-pulled as labs face pressure to compete; the winning response is to build vertical open-source models on-prem, citing 11 Labs, Lovable, Figma, and Lora's legal vertical models.
On-prem AI LONG
Vertical LLMs LONG
HIGH
23:19
Sep 02
Sep 02
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
10h
EWY
Kioxia Holdings
Japanese small/mid-cap technology M&A targets
KS
Korean power distribution/transmission equipment
▾
HIGH
KOSPI should recover after retail supply stabilizes.
Kwon says July leveraged deleveraging caused record monthly outflows of 12.5 trillion won, and retail net buying collapsed from 54.5 trillion won in June to 5.4 trillion won last month. He sees this as a sentiment and supply shock rather than deteriorating fundamentals; he expects the August low to hold and KOSPI to recover gradually once retail selling and buyback-driven support stabilize, with strong fundamentals eventually reflected.
EWY LONG
Memory shortage supports SK Hynix and Kioxia.
SK chairman Choi Tae-won said cooperation with Kioxia is possible, including co-production, R&D and supply-chain sharing, and that a Japan factory is being reviewed. Kwon argues this follows a real memory shortage: data center memory demand is running 20-30% short, domestic SK Hynix expansion cannot keep up, and Japan has an existing semiconductor ecosystem. A SK Hynix-Kioxia NAND alliance could reshuffle global NAND share and potentially move SK above Samsung Electronics.
Kioxia Holdings LONG
Korean money targeting Japanese small-cap tech M&A.
Kwon observes that Korean large investors are moving money into old Japanese small and mid-sized companies that hold original technologies but lack succession plans. By adding younger Korean management and production dynamism, they see a viable business model; the theme also fits Choi Tae-won's Korea-Japan economic cooperation push, supporting Japanese small-cap technology M&A targets.
Japanese small/mid-cap technology M&A targets LONG
Local SK Hynix looks cheap versus ADR.
Doosan Fuel Cell signed a large fuel cell supply contract to US AI data centers starting in the second half of 2024 through first half of 2028. Kwon argues that even though fuel cells are expensive to operate, the deal shows US power bottlenecks are so severe that data center operators are pulling forward expensive on-site generation; data center construction takes about 18 months while transmission and distribution can take more than 10 years, and fuel cell waste heat can be used for data center cooling.
KS LONG
AI grid bottleneck favors Korean power equipment.
Kwon stresses that the AI data center buildout is most severely bottlenecked in power distribution and transmission: data centers can be built in about 18 months, but grid transmission and distribution can take more than 10 years. Even when generation such as fuel cells is added, the power must be moved, so Korean distribution and transmission equipment suppliers are positioned to benefit.
Korean power distribution/transmission equipment LONG
AI networking demand lifts Nokia.
Nokia returned to the EuroStoxx 50 as an AI network equipment supplier, replacing Volkswagen. Kwon frames this as confirmation that companies with real AI supply-chain exposure are being re-rated regardless of tier, and Nokia's networking equipment is now leveraged to AI data center infrastructure demand.
NOK LONG
Avoid legacy European automakers losing index relevance.
Volkswagen was removed from the EuroStoxx 50 even though it remains a global top automaker by sales, while Stellantis was already dropped last year. Kwon presents this as structural underperformance for legacy European automakers losing relevance to AI supply chains, making Volkswagen and Stellantis unattractive despite their size.
VOLKSWAGEN AVOID
STLA AVOID
HIGH
23:13
Sep 02
Sep 02
US AI technology stack
DTCR
US semiconductor manufacturing
INTC
URA
▾
HIGH
American AI stack leads globally.
Lutnick argues AI is 'education in a bottle' and that American frontier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, NVIDIA and Palantir are the global teacher while Chinese open-source models are generations behind, so the world should build using the American tech stack.
US AI technology stack LONG
Data centers bring local economic benefits.
Lutnick says communities that embrace data centers get great economics, more power buildout, lower local power prices and tax benefits, and that data centers are part of the AI opportunity mix.
DTCR LONG
US semiconductor manufacturing booms on policy.
Lutnick says the administration wants to lift U.S. semiconductor production from about 1% to 40-50% by requiring or incentivizing companies to build fabs in America or pay tariffs, and states the policy is already working with over $500 billion committed from TSMC and Micron alone.
US semiconductor manufacturing LONG
Intel's foundry push nears success.
Lutnick frames Intel as central to reaching 50% domestic semiconductor production and says Intel is on the way to being successful, making it a direct beneficiary of the U.S. onshoring push.
INTC LONG
Nuclear buildout becomes US priority.
Lutnick says the administration will do for nuclear what it is doing for semiconductors—building in America—and wants the Trump administration to have launched a nuclear factory buildout to support advanced U.S. manufacturing.
URA LONG
Canada's trade fight hurts its economy.
Lutnick argues Canada's Liberal Party chose to fight the Trump administration for domestic political reasons, making a trade deal unlikely anytime soon, even though it is bad for the Canadian economy.
EWC AVOID
Iran conflict keeps oil prices elevated.
Himes warns that U.S. strikes and economic pressure on Iran have already pushed oil to $95 and gasoline up $1.20, and that widening secondary sanctions toward China or India could blow back on American consumers through higher energy and goods prices.
WTI WATCH
US refiners gain Venezuelan heavy crude access.
Wirth says the Venezuelan expansion is a win for U.S. refiners that prefer this type of heavy crude, giving them broader access to preferred feedstock.
CRAK LONG
Venezuela improves energy investment climate.
Wirth says Venezuela is now more economic, with a competitive return opportunity, strong contract protections, and true alignment of interests that should encourage more energy investment in the country.
Venezuela LONG
Chevron's Venezuela investment adds production growth.
Wirth says Chevron's $7 billion Venezuela joint-venture investment has strong legal and fiscal protections, stays within its existing capital plan, and supports growth from over 250,000 to over 600,000 barrels a day by 2031.
CVX LONG
HIGH
22:44
Sep 02
Sep 02
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
11h
AVGO
005930.KS
000660.KS
DAX 1ST
CAC 40
▾
HIGH
Broadcom AI signal remains solid.
Broadcom's aftermarket strength after its earnings report is a positive AI signal. He was initially worried because the prior Broadcom call disappointed despite good numbers, but the market's changed reaction to the conference call suggests AI-related revenue is being treated as solid rather than fresh noise.
AVGO LONG
Memory selloff unjustified; fundamentals support accumulation.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell more than 3% despite earnings and peer signals not justifying it. Micron and SK Hynix ADR were firm, so the local selloff was driven by foreign futures/program selling and weak sentiment, not fundamentals; on fundamentals he believes this is an accumulation zone.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Rising yields won't stop global equity uptrend.
Rising government bond yields are not a reason for equities to fall now. Major indices in Germany, France, Italy, the UK and the US are still in an uptrend even with record 10-year yields, because this rate rise is coming from stronger investment demand rather than the old liquidity-driven regime.
DAX LONG
CAC 40 LONG
SPY LONG
European defense and infrastructure investment cycle.
Europe's equity strength is not just AI; it is powered by a huge defense and infrastructure investment cycle. Trump's push for 5% GDP defense spending, Russia-Ukraine security fears, and the need to build roads and railways for heavy military equipment are all driving public investment.
European Defense LONG
European infrastructure LONG
AI data center investment is driving growth.
US data shows the fastest-rising construction category is AI data centers, and this is what is driving the economy. Neocloud companies are borrowing at 10-12% because they can earn their money back within about a year, showing real investment demand behind AI infrastructure.
AI Data Center Infrastructure LONG
SKYY LONG
Oracle unlikely collapse despite AI debt worries.
Oracle is at the hyper scaler edge and is borrowing at about 10%, but he does not think Oracle will default or collapse despite market worries about AI-related debt. Next week's earnings is an important event to test this.
ORCL WATCH
KOSPI valuation attractive near five times earnings.
KOSPI's PER has fallen to about 5.1x; below 5x would be an extremely attractive level that historically would trigger a rebound. The market is heavy due to retail overhang and weak sentiment, but valuations are at levels that should attract buyers over time.
EWY LONG
HIGH
22:24
Sep 02
Sep 02
1000x Podcast
11h
HOOD
ARB 1ST
GLD
ETH FLIP
BNO
▾
HIGH
Buy HOOD for diversified crypto/equities upside.
Avi argues Robinhood is one of the best expressions for the crypto trade because it has multiple ways to win: if equities or AI come back, options volume and crypto activity lift it; if crypto booms while equities stay flat, Robinhood still rises; it also has downside protection from its actual business. He says he has been advocating it for a long time and prefers it over one-way meme coin bets.
HOOD LONG
Arbitrum dark horse on Robinhood chain fees.
Avi sees Arbitrum as a dark horse because he believes Arbitrum receives 10% of the fees generated by Robinhood chain, and Robinhood chain weekly volume jumped from about 500 million to 1.5 billion, which should drive meaningful fee revenue. He expects Robinhood chain to be larger in two years, accruing value to Arbitrum.
ARB LONG
Gold retraced; debasement trade offers reentry.
Avi believes Kevin Warsh is jawboning without spine, there will be no September rate hike, and this sets up the next leg higher in Bitcoin and gold. If no hike arrives, he thinks it could produce a bull market across equities, gold, and Bitcoin.
GLD LONG
SPY LONG
BTC LONG
Ethereum narrative second-fastest horse if Bitcoin rises.
Avi says Robinhood chain activity is built on Arbitrum and ultimately filters down to Ethereum. While direct revenue is small, the narrative could coalesce around Ethereum, especially if Solana loses flows, and Ethereum could be the second-fastest horse after Bitcoin if Bitcoin rises.
ETH LONG
Iran's Hormuz leverage fading; oil contained.
Jonah says Iran is trying as hard as possible to shut the Strait of Hormuz but oil is still getting out through bypass pipelines, dredged routes, and the dark fleet. He argues commercial storage is not draining and Iran's leverage over Hormuz is degrading by the day, so the extreme geopolitical oil risk premium is likely to keep fading rather than cause a sustained squeeze higher.
BNO WATCH
Defense contracts exploding; own Palantir/Anduril.
Avi argues the Iran/Hormuz conflict is forcing the US military to deploy new technology and work more closely with defense contractors, creating another megatrend over the next few years: an explosion in defense contractor contracts and a leveling up of military capabilities, with Palantir and Anduril named as beneficiaries.
ANDURIL LONG
PLTR LONG
HIGH
22:09
Sep 02
Sep 02
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
11h
NVDA
DELL
AVGO
SMH
SNOW
▾
HIGH
Nvidia leads AI infrastructure and financing demand.
Nvidia rallied 3% and led the indices, with JPMorgan remaining positive after earnings showed a strong 70% growth framework. Nvidia's financial platform loan demand has doubled, including large Asia-linked financing tied to AI supply-chain expansion such as TSMC, showing Nvidia is acting as the anchor for AI infrastructure demand.
NVDA LONG
Dell proves enterprise AI server demand accelerating.
Dell's quarter was bullish: guidance was raised, backlog hit a record, operating expense ratio hit a record low, and customer count surpassed 6,500. Demand is led by neocloud, government, and enterprise customers, proving enterprise AI compute demand is accelerating. Despite intraday volatility, the stock closed up 15%.
DELL LONG
Broadcom recovers on AI revenue doubling, diversification.
Broadcom initially dropped after hours on guidance that came in below expectations, but recovered as AI revenue is expected to double and the company said it has secured supply capacity. Park argues Broadcom can diversify its TPU customers beyond Google, reducing fears about share losses to Marvell or MediaTek.
AVGO LONG
AI demand doubles semiconductor equipment demand.
AI demand is strong enough that semiconductor equipment demand has roughly doubled, and overnight semiconductor news was positive, supporting the broader semiconductor equipment space.
SMH LONG
Snowflake earnings beat drives sharp rebound.
Snowflake reported good earnings and jumped about 21-22.5% after hours. Park notes that pressured software names are getting earnings-driven bounces, showing the software selloff is not uniform.
SNOW LONG
Oracle earnings setup after fear priced in.
Oracle has next week's earnings as a key market event. Park believes significant worry is already reflected in the stock and hopes it rebounds if results clear, making it an earnings-watch setup rather than a confirmed directional trade.
ORCL WATCH
Credo optical transition is key watch.
Credo is at an inflection as it shifts from its dominant copper-wire franchise toward optical products. Expectations were high and the stock fell about 20%, so the key setup is whether optical product volume expands and validates that transition.
CRDO WATCH
Cybersecurity valuations now face harsh pressure.
Security software names are now receiving the same valuation pressure that hardware previously faced. Palo Alto sold off despite decent earnings because valuation was elevated, and CrowdStrike trades above 100x. Without accelerated growth, cybersecurity stocks are entering a difficult phase, with added concern from Anthropic's security testing strength.
PANW AVOID
CRWD AVOID
US refiners in historic bull market.
US refining is in a historically strong bull phase comparable to the 2003 and 2013 surges, supported by the US exerting energy dominance and persistent geopolitical and energy-supply tension.
XLE LONG
Favor equities over bonds into earnings.
Goldman Sachs argues investors should keep increasing equity exposure and reducing bond exposure because the upcoming earnings season should cover macro and rate concerns, making earnings the dominant driver.
US bonds AVOID
SPY LONG
Diversify into low-vol, dividends, gold, real assets.
Because volatility remains elevated, Goldman recommends diversifying into lower-volatility stocks, high-dividend stocks, gold, and real assets even while maintaining equity exposure.
Low-volatility stocks LONG
High Dividend Stocks LONG
GLD LONG
Watch 10-year Treasury hitting 5%.
JPMorgan warns that a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 5% could deliver a final shock to markets, but after that a structurally healthier decline may begin. The 5% level becomes an important trigger to monitor.
US10Y WATCH
Tesla Cybercab reveal is binary event.
Tesla's Cybercab reveal is set for the next morning. Morgan Stanley warns that if it is only a simple reveal event, it will be sold, but because vehicles have been seen driving in Texas expectations are high, making the reveal a binary event to monitor.
TSLA WATCH
Caterpillar has robotics/physical AI re-rating angle.
Caterpillar is continuing a physical AI partnership. Park sees a potential re-rating angle where a heavy equipment maker becomes robotics-like, similar to Boston Dynamics, giving Caterpillar a future robotics blueprint.
CAT WATCH
Eos Energy wins Google data center contract.
Eos Energy signed a Google data center contract, driving a sharp rally. Park cites it as a reference for ESS-related names showing data center energy storage demand.
EOSE LONG
HIGH
22:01
Sep 02
Sep 02
AIQ 1ST
AVGO 1ST
NVDA
long-duration U.S. Treasuries
Equities
▾
HIGH
AI buildout survives higher rates
The AI buildout will continue even if interest rates rise, because much of it is funded by hyperscaler cash flows and NVIDIA's own cash flow; the productivity gains are large enough that customers will pay higher financing costs, so hawkish Fed policy is not a real constraint.
AIQ LONG
Broadcom risk/reward attractive at 13x
Broadcom's AI chip franchise is defensible over the next 24 months because custom ASIC design cycles are longer than 12-24 months; it may lose some sockets but not share en masse, ASPs keep rising, and at 13x earnings the risk/reward into the AI revenue inflection is attractive.
AVGO LONG
NVIDIA's software/infrastructure move is underappreciated
The market underestimates NVIDIA's move down-market into infrastructure, software/model layers and open models, which lets it pair its intelligence layer with its own GPUs and creates a powerful business model beyond selling chips.
NVDA LONG
Extend duration after bear flattening
Extending duration makes sense after Jackson Hole because the Fed is on the case and the curve bear-flattened; the long end is stabilizing after the rise in real yields, not inflation expectations, so bond market fear is overblown.
long-duration U.S. Treasuries LONG
Prefer equities over tight credit spreads
With earnings growth above 30% and the cycle still intact, equities remain far more attractive than credit; he would fund equity upside from credit exposure rather than buy credit spreads at all-time lows.
Equities LONG
LQD AVOID
Prefer high yield and EM debt
For fixed-income-only investors, strong fundamentals still give more buffer in riskier credit, so he prefers high-yield and emerging-market debt over investment-grade credit.
HYG LONG
EMB LONG
Own tech, avoid cyclicals
Because yields are rising due to accelerating earnings and productivity rather than inflation fear, he is overweight technology and communication services and underweight cyclicals, favoring quality balance sheets and high profitability.
XLK LONG
XLC LONG
XLI AVOID
Five Below value proposition wins
Five Below's value-priced, trend-driven offering aimed at kids should hold up in a tougher consumer backdrop, as consumers seek value while parents keep buying for their kids; new management is better at staying on trends and keeping the sales flywheel going.
FIVE LONG
MongoDB AI inflection is coming
MongoDB is becoming the data platform for AI and is seeing early momentum across frontier labs, AI-native companies and enterprise agentic applications; Atlas growth is solid, and the AI revenue inflection is a matter of when, not if, with Voyage acting as a customer funnel.
MDB LONG
Venezuela grid deal boosts GE Vernova
GE Vernova's strategic alliance to rebuild Venezuela's deteriorated power grid is a $25 billion opportunity and adds a new source of demand on top of already strong global demand for turbines and transformers from the AI/data center buildout.
GEV LONG
Favor US large/mid, EM, value
She remains overweight equities versus fixed income and within equities favors US large- and mid-cap equities plus emerging markets and international value as alternatives to concentrated US tech, while being more cautious on developed international markets, Europe and Japan.
US Large Cap Equities LONG
VO LONG
EEM LONG
EFV LONG
Developed International Equities AVOID
Diversify AI into healthcare, industrials, financials
AI concentration risk is high with top names over 40% of the index, so she wants diversified AI exposure and expects productivity gains to broaden into healthcare, manufacturing/industrials, and financial services, not just technology.
XLV LONG
XLF LONG
Power is the AI bottleneck
The AI buildout starts with the electron: to get a token you must invest in power generation and behind-the-meter electrification that does not strain the grid, making power/data center infrastructure the key bottleneck and opportunity.
AI/data center power infrastructure LONG
Buy ERCOT/PJM electricity futures
Direct exposure to ERCOT and PJM wholesale electricity futures is a way to bet on higher power prices driven by data center demand, reshoring and general electricity demand growth; the product rolls 12-month futures, provides inflation hedging, and Texas's 12-month curve is the cheapest in over 10 years.
ERCOT/PJM wholesale electricity futures LONG
European nat gas has winter squeeze risk
He is more concerned about European natural gas than crude oil because LNG supply is less flexible, key trains are down, European stocks are extremely low, and a cold winter could cause a squeeze in northwest Europe.
UNG LONG
Power stability is next bottleneck
AI's current bottleneck has migrated to power: the grid was built long ago, renewables add intermittency, and demand is rising, so solving power generation/stability is the next bottleneck-driven investment opportunity.
Power grid modernization LONG
HIGH
21:42
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
12h
SPY
DTCR 1ST
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield
WTI
DIESEL
▾
HIGH
Market is uncomfortably trendless.
The market is in an uncomfortably trendless state despite the rally; investors are uncertain whether a broader pullback is needed or whether weakness in consumer cyclicals and industrials was enough to clear the excess.
SPY WATCH
Data centers drive manufacturing and construction.
The Fed Beige Book shows data centers are a key economic driver: manufacturing activity picked up partly on data center demand, and commercial construction is rising while residential construction declined because of data centers.
DTCR LONG
Bond yields have normalized.
Global bond yields have returned to pre-Great Financial Crisis levels and are back to normal; the abnormal period was central banks suppressing short- and long-term interest rates with quantitative easing between the GFC and COVID crisis, so today's rates may be normalized.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield WATCH
Hormuz oil flow risks are rising.
Record oil volumes moved through the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran conflict began, with Iran actively challenging those flows, and diesel is near record levels—an oil supply chokepoint risk setup.
WTI WATCH
DIESEL WATCH
HIGH
21:11
Sep 02
Sep 02
Morgan Stanley
12h
Data center buildout
AI capex
SKYY
SPY
▾
HIGH
Watch state races for data center restrictions
Data-center opposition has moved from a macro thematic to a granular, race-by-race issue. Both Democratic and Republican candidates are proposing conditional or restrictive data-center policies in key governors' races including Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania. Governorships matter because governors can appoint public utility commissioners, so midterm results could affect pending data-center projects even if federal AI policy incentives remain unchanged.
Data center buildout WATCH
Stay long AI capex and hyperscalers
Morgan Stanley remains constructive on AI capex despite local political backlash. The internet team expects over $1 trillion of hyperscaler spending next year, supported by the AI sovereignty theme where governments want to control their own AI stacks, and by company mitigation measures such as ratepayer protection pledges and water-use disclosures. The AI buildout is expected to be less sensitive to policy outcomes than campaign rhetoric suggests.
AI capex LONG
SKYY LONG
Watch equity market into midterm elections
Equity markets historically show negative seasonality into midterm elections. Morgan Stanley equity strategy sees potential for a knee-jerk market reaction if Democrats outperform in November, but expects it not to be durable; investors may pull forward anticipation of Democrats doing well in 2028. Seasonal weakness can be reinforced by policy narratives during a heavy catalyst calendar.
SPY WATCH
HIGH
21:03
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
12h
US data center buildout
NVDA 1ST
TSM
IBM 1ST
MU
▾
HIGH
Data center buildout continues despite opposition.
Lutnick argues data centers will house frontier AI knowledge and create local prosperity; builders will supply their own power and lower local power costs, while opposition is based on misinformation. Communities that block data centers will lose investment to others, supporting continued US data center buildout.
US data center buildout LONG
Massive private AI infrastructure investments in US.
Secretary Lutnick says the Trump administration is attracting enormous private AI infrastructure investment: Nvidia committed $500 billion to AI infrastructure and supercomputers, TSMC $265 billion to semiconductor manufacturing, IBM over $150 billion, Micron $250 billion for memory fabs, plus SpaceX and Anthropic commitments, signaling a broad US AI infrastructure buildout.
NVDA LONG
TSM LONG
IBM LONG
MU LONG
New FAA rules unlock commercial drones.
Kratsios says commercial drone operations were a novel case where existing FAA airspace rules were not fit; the administration completed rulemaking to create new regulations that unlock commercial drone delivery for the American people, a regulatory catalyst for the drone sector.
commercial drone operations LONG
HIGH
21:00
Sep 02
Sep 02
Market Makers
12h
China manufacturing
KRE 1ST
TCEHY 1ST
BAIDU 1ST
TSLA 1ST
▾
HIGH
China remains the world's factory.
China became the factory of the world after Deng Xiaoping introduced market reforms and created the Shenzhen special economic zone, using extremely cheap labor to make it cheaper to produce in China and ship globally. After the real estate reset, Beijing explicitly refocused on being the factory of the world; in 2025 China's export surplus reached USD 1.2 trillion even as sales to the United States fell 20%.
China manufacturing LONG
China property boom ended.
Chinese real estate reached 20-25% of GDP and produced ghost cities, but that model ended. The government's three red lines policy caused construction and sales to fall sharply, deliberately resetting the property market before a bubble burst and shifting focus back to manufacturing.
KRE AVOID
WeChat wins; Baidu fell behind.
China's internet runs on local super apps: WeChat is years ahead of WhatsApp and search has moved inside WeChat, Xiaohongshu and Douyin instead of a standalone Google equivalent. Baidu was left behind in search, once the best business, while Tencent and Alibaba compare far better by market value.
TCEHY LONG
BAIDU AVOID
Tesla value may come from robots.
Elon Musk says 80% of Tesla's market value will eventually come from Tesla's humanoid robots. Geromel adds that historically it has been wrong to bet against Elon Musk, making Tesla a humanoid-robot optionality idea.
TSLA LONG
China leads robotics adoption.
China's demographic collapse, with deaths exceeding births since 2022 and population projected to halve, drives a robotics and AI reorganization of work. China already has more industrial robots installed than the rest of the world combined, and Chinese firms Unitree and Agibot are the largest humanoid robot sellers globally; humanoids fit a world designed for humans.
China humanoid robotics LONG
China controls rare earth processing.
Rare earth processing is costly, polluting and dominated by China, making it a strategic weapon. China has already used rare earth restrictions in the recent past, and some US factories cannot produce vehicles, aircraft and other items without these materials.
REMX LONG
China soy dependence is fragile.
Brazil sends more than two-thirds of its soybean exports to China, and China gets about 70% of its soybean imports from Brazil. If China stopped buying, no other country has the same appetite, world soybean prices would collapse, and Brazil would face a major crisis.
SOYB WATCH
HIGH
20:44
Sep 02
Sep 02
ANTHROPIC
US IPO market
Data center power providers
▾
HIGH
Anthropic IPO expected late September-early October.
Anthropic's long-awaited IPO is expected between late September and early October, but still needs to file with regulators, finalize its revolving credit facility, choose additional lead banks, and hold an analyst day; it expects to raise billions in a record-setting deal at a valuation just over $86 billion, making it the anchor event for the US IPO calendar.
ANTHROPIC WATCH
Issuers rush IPOs before Anthropic's debut.
Other companies looking to go public are rushing to get ahead of Anthropic's giant IPO, including cloud computing, smart-ring, and power-provider IPO candidates, compressing the post-Labor Day listing window and creating a crowded issuance calendar.
US IPO market WATCH
Anthropic deals boost data center power demand.
Anthropic has emerged as a key customer for data center power, signing a $35 billion deal with Nvidia-backed cloud provider Lambda, a $45 billion deal to rent capacity in West Virginia, a $50 billion data center deal with Fluidstack, and a $45 billion agreement with SpaceX, signaling substantial demand for data center capacity and power.
Data center power providers WATCH
HIGH
20:38
Sep 02
Sep 02
DELL
HPE 1ST
CSCO FLIP
LMND 1ST
TSLA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Dell AI server and IT demand strong
Dell boosted its annual sales forecast by $25 billion on surging AI server demand, while corporate IT spending remains resilient despite memory-driven server price increases. Traditional server revenue grew 122% and Dell is one of only a few vendors that can sell AI servers to neocloud customers, supporting growth momentum into fiscal 2028.
DELL LONG
HPE server and networking upside ahead
HPE should report similar server-side upside because it is one of only a few US and global vendors in the market, and its networking side is also going gangbusters, which adds a revenue boost and a margin boost on top of the server strength.
HPE LONG
Cisco networking growth strong at higher margins
Cisco's corporate networking growth has been growing phenomenally at higher margins, as heard from its results, adding another positive networking read-through alongside the AI server ecosystem strength.
CSCO LONG
Lemonade AI-driven insurance pricing drives growth
Lemonade uses AI and telematics to price auto insurance based on how people actually drive rather than demographic proxies, is expanding rapidly across states, and its AI also pays claims in seconds and sells policies faster, lowering costs. Pet insurance is growing at a 60% compounding rate and is a major driver for the business.
LMND LONG
Tesla FSD data shows safer driving
Lemonade's data and Tesla API integration show that Tesla Full Self-Driving is significantly safer than the average human driver, supporting a 50% per-mile insurance discount for FSD miles and reinforcing Tesla's autonomous driving value proposition.
TSLA LONG
Uber layoffs cut costs, boost robotaxi bet
Uber is laying off about 3,300 employees, or 10% of staff, reducing management layers and shifting resources toward robotaxi partnerships. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the restructuring will produce around $2 billion in annual savings, supporting the stock despite its year-to-date underperformance.
UBER LONG
PG&E faces wildfire liability and earnings risk
PG&E plans to defer about $2 billion of investments next year after a proposed revamp of California's wildfire response did not do enough to protect the company. The stock has fallen sharply and there are ongoing questions about wildfire cost exposure and future earnings.
PCG AVOID
Sphere upgrade sees global expansion
Sphere Entertainment was upgraded by Guggenheim with a Street-high price target, with the analyst seeing more small and midsize Sphere projects in different states and larger opportunities in Asian markets such as South Korea and Japan.
SPHR LONG
Venezuela JV doubles output with legal protections
Chevron plans to invest $7 billion in Venezuela over five years through a joint venture to more than double crude production there, and the CEO says the contract includes strong legal protections, dispute resolution and locked tax/royalty terms, with the development expected to double Chevron's Venezuela operations.
CVX LONG
HIGH
20:26
Sep 02
Sep 02
BNO 1ST
WTI
FIVE 1ST
DELL 1ST
GEV 1ST
▾
HIGH
Oil supported by US-Iran conflict
Brent crude is around $95 and WTI around $90 as the US-Iran conflict re-escalates, putting a geopolitical risk premium back into oil and supporting elevated crude prices.
BNO LONG
WTI LONG
Five Below robust earnings, strong balance sheet
Five Below is expected to post robust earnings and is in a strong financial position with a decent balance sheet and cash, supporting potential shareholder returns.
FIVE LONG
Dell boosted by AI server demand
Dell shares surged after the company boosted annual sales guidance on surging AI server demand; its AI server forecast tripled year-over-year and it booked more than $130 billion in server orders over the past 12 months.
DELL LONG
GE Vernova gains from Venezuela grid work
GE Vernova shares rose after committing to repair large parts of Venezuela's power grid as part of deals to boost the country's energy output; Venezuela's deteriorated grid needs at least $25 billion in power sector investment.
GEV LONG
Snowflake guidance beat drives after-hours pop
Snowflake jumped after hours as the company raised fiscal-year operating margin guidance and product revenue forecasts; the stock had already been at multi-year highs but got additional upside from the release.
SNOW LONG
HIGH
20:15
Sep 02
Sep 02
SMH 1ST
ITA 1ST
TLT 1ST
US AI sector
INTC
▾
HIGH
U.S. must win AI infrastructure race.
The administration wants to lift U.S. semiconductor production from about 1% to 40-50% by using tariffs: companies that build fabs in America avoid tariffs, while others pay for U.S. market access. Intel is on its way, and TSMC and Micron have committed over $500 billion combined to build in America.
SMH LONG
Defense supplemental spending is essential.
He argues Congress must pass supplemental defense funding to replenish munitions and build the tanks needed for U.S. troops, and that future reconciliation should invest in military modernization. The current conflict and national defense make this spending a priority even without offsets.
ITA LONG
Fiscal deficits push Treasury yields higher.
He warns the U.S. is running out of fiscal space: it is borrowing $2 trillion on a $7 trillion budget, half of borrowed money goes to debt interest, and the bond market is already pushing long-dated yields higher. He sees future borrowing difficulty, austerity, and tax increases as a real economic risk.
TLT SHORT
American AI frontier models lead China.
He argues the American AI tech stack and frontier models are the global teachers, with OpenAI and Anthropic at the frontier, while Chinese open source models are a couple generations behind. The G20 should adopt the American AI stack to democratize education and opportunity.
US AI sector LONG
Tariff policy drives domestic chip manufacturing.
The administration wants to lift U.S. semiconductor production from about 1% to 40-50% by using tariffs: companies that build fabs in America avoid tariffs, while others pay for U.S. market access. Intel is on its way, and TSMC and Micron have committed over $500 billion combined to build in America.
INTC LONG
TSM LONG
MU LONG
U.S. nuclear buildout gets policy push.
He says the administration will do for nuclear what it is doing for semiconductors: launch a domestic nuclear factory build and advanced manufacturing push so America wins in nuclear energy.
URA LONG
U.S. pharma manufacturing gets tariff shield.
He extends the same build-in-America tariff logic to pharmaceuticals: the policy has been successful there, and companies that build in the U.S. avoid tariffs while building, supporting domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing.
U.S. pharmaceutical manufacturing LONG
Canadian political trade fight hurts economy.
He says Canada walked away from a negotiated interim trade deal for domestic political reasons, with the Liberal Party using the fight with Trump for electoral advantage even if it is bad for the Canadian economy and sells Canadian citizens down the river; no deal appears imminent.
EWC AVOID
HIGH
20:02
Sep 02
Sep 02
NVDA 1ST
SPGI
LLY 1ST
CVX
JPM 1ST
▾
HIGH
Nvidia deal broadens AI ecosystem.
Nvidia's reported $14B acquisition of Hugging Face is a democratization and open-source bet that extends Nvidia beyond selling chips and protects it against customer concentration, with Nvidia also on a broader dealmaking spree.
NVDA LONG
S&P Global spinoff could unlock value.
S&P Global is exploring separating Capital IQ Pro into a standalone public company; the data is proprietary, the stock ticked up on the report, and a strategic process may lead to a sale, though the situation is early.
SPGI WATCH
Lilly diversification supports future pipeline.
Eli Lilly is using its obesity-franchise windfall to buy early-stage biotechs like Merida for up to $3B; it has already done about $33B in such deals this year, a diversified shots-on-goal strategy that reduces risk versus one big acquisition.
LLY LONG
Chevron Venezuela expansion is a win.
Chevron's expansion of its Venezuela oil operations is framed as a win for U.S. finance and for Venezuela's economy because it brings investment into Venezuelan production.
CVX LONG
JPMorgan pipeline supports record activity.
J.P. Morgan sees an active and building investment-banking pipeline across M&A, IPOs and capital raising, with volumes on course to potentially surpass 2021's record.
JPM LONG
KKR exit adds $2 per share.
KKR struck a $17 billion exit from its strategic holdings unit that will add about $2 per share to KKR's profit, marking the first exit for that strategy.
KKR LONG
Pet sector has compounding resilient growth.
The pet sector has compounding growth from a growing pet population and rising spending per pet driven by humanization and premiumization; it is resilient, with minimally processed food and pet supplements taking share and strong exit alternatives.
PAWZ LONG
Med spa aesthetics offer attractive unit economics.
Aesthetic services such as medical spas and injectables offer strong, replicable unit economics, extensive whitespace, recurring revenue and favorable consumer tailwinds, attracting sponsor capital.
Aesthetic services / medical spas LONG
Health and wellness benefits self-investment trend.
Broader health and wellness is attractive because consumers are investing in themselves through personal care, fitness routines, devices and longevity, driving strong dealmaking activity.
Consumer health and wellness LONG
Travel and leisure benefits experience spending.
Travel and leisure remains attractive because consumers are still investing in experiences such as high-end cruises and adventure travel, supporting deal activity.
XLY LONG
AI-enabled software multiples are attractive.
Software is bifurcating: some companies will compress, but AI-enabled software companies at compressed multiples around 4-5x revenue can use AI to sell more and are attractive, and Francisco Partners has been active.
AI-enabled software LONG
AI meta-wave creates winners and losers.
AI is a genuine meta-wave comparable to PC, internet, mobile and cloud, with deployment only about 7% today; long-term upside is underestimated and short-term is overestimated, so a few multitrillion-dollar winners will emerge while 90% of today's AI companies will be worth far less.
XLK WATCH
HIGH
20:00
Sep 02
Sep 02
Wealthion
13h
GLD 1ST
DBC 1ST
GDX 1ST
Nevada gold miners
IAUX 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold and commodities face 20-year bull run.
Richard Young believes gold and commodities are in a 5-, 10-, even 20-year bull run. He cites a structural shift in the gold market: central banks were sellers for the first 20 years of his 35-year career but have been buyers since the GFC and stepped up purchases after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He says hard assets are the future over the next decade and his family is all-in on gold equities.
GLD LONG
DBC LONG
Gold miners set to outperform.
Trey Reik argues gold mines are among the longest-duration endeavors on the planet, yet gold stocks trade like water. He applies Warren Buffett's moat analogy to mining: completed large mines such as Detour or Mardic can be impossible to recreate in less than 20-30 years, so long-life, high-quality mines in stable jurisdictions should become very valuable. Richard Young agrees and adds that hard assets have moats around them.
GDX LONG
Nevada is best gold jurisdiction.
Nevada is the number one jurisdiction for gold exploration according to the Fraser Institute, and investors historically pay the most value for producing assets there. The state's disseminated geology is unique: resources convert to reserves at about 100 percent in Nevada, compared with 30 to 50 percent in many other regions, making Nevada-focused gold assets particularly valuable.
Nevada gold miners LONG
i-80 Gold has major re-rating potential.
i-80 Gold owns four past-producing Nevada gold mines acquired from Barrick and Newmont, with larger ore bodies defined over five years. The company completed a difficult recapitalization and now has five feasibility or prefeasibility studies expected within 12 months, an autoclave refurbishment, and a plan to grow toward 600,000 ounces annually by the early 2030s, with a path to the 2050s, based on current gold prices. Young sees an 8-10 billion NAV and multiple re-rating opportunities through the end of the decade.
IAUX LONG
HIGH
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